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This test consists of 5 multiple choice questions, 5 short answer questions, and 10 short essay questions.

Multiple Choice Questions

1. The author states that people's predilection for causal thinking exposes them to serious mistakes in evaluating what?
(a) The randomness of truly random events.
(b) The merits of analytical analysis.
(c) The different values of statistics.
(d) The causality of events.

2. According to the author, what is determined by the coherence of the best story you can tell by the evidence at hand?
(a) Axioms.
(b) Confidence.
(c) Ego depletion.
(d) Executive control.

3. According to the author, the dynamics of what help explain the recurrent cycles of disaster, concern, and complacency that are familiar to students of large-scale emergencies?
(a) Prediction.
(b) Consciousness.
(c) Memory.
(d) Causality.

4. Who is described as the editor for the online magazine Edge that asked scientists to report their favorite equation?
(a) Christopher Hsee.
(b) John Brockman.
(c) John List.
(d) Gary Klein.

5. Who is the author of The Black Swan?
(a) Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi.
(b) Keith Stanovich.
(c) Larry Jacoby.
(d) Nassim Taleb.

Short Answer Questions

1. When did the Yom Kippur War break out?

2. Who was Richard Nisbett's student who assisted in conducting an experiment at the University of Michigan that the author cites in Chapter 15?

3. What occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity?

4. In the example where the author presents two candidates for a college professorship, which individual is described as recently completing her graduate work?

5. In the presentation of the "character" of Tom W. in Chapter 14, what is the subject of the experiment asked to rate?

Short Essay Questions

1. What scene does the author present in order to demonstrate "norm theory" in the text?

2. What does the author's example of a study of kidney cancer statistics in different American regions demonstrate?

3. How is conjunction fallacy defined?

4. What is Bayesian inference?

5. What is priming and how does it relate to anchoring?

6. Who was Amos Tversky and what were his accomplishments?

7. What can induce cognitive ease? What does cognitive ease mean?

8. How does System 1 operate?

9. What is a heuristic?

10. What is the halo effect?

(see the answer keys)

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