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A Tough Call, July 10, 2006
Summary: The outcome of the Fed's next decision is too tough to call, as yet. The need for higher interest rates to slow down growth is fast becoming urgent, since inflation pressures are now rising visibly and strongly. However, job growth may be slowing, which could contain inflation pressures within a reasonable period of time. If the Fed were confident that a slower pace of job growth would be sustained, then the Fed could pause. But the slower pace of employment growth may be temporary. The Fed's next move is a very tough call right now based on the information at hand. So, the Fed will welcome the new data that will become available before its next meeting.
The outcome of the Fed's next decision is too tough to call, as yet. The need for higher interest rates to slow down growth is fast becoming urgent, since inflation pressures are now rising visibly and strongly. However, job growth may be slowing, which could contain inflation pressures within a reasonable period of time. If the Fed were confident that a slower pace of job growth would be sustained, then the Fed could pause. But the slower pace of employment growth may be temporary. The Fed's next move is a very tough call right now based on the information at hand. So, the Fed will welcome the new data that will become available before its next meeting.
The case for more tightening is actually fairly strong. The growing scarcity of labor, as measured by the unemployment rate, is becoming impossible to ignore in the inflationary acceleration in wages...
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This section contains 437 words (approx. 2 pages at 300 words per page) |
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