The supreme condition of success in a Communist revolution is that it should not paralyse industry.  If industry is paralysed, the evils which exist in modern Russia, or others just as great, seem practically unavoidable.  There will be the problem of town and country, there will be hunger, there will be fierceness and revolts and military tyranny.  All these things follow in a fatal sequence; and the end of them is almost certain to be something quite different from what genuine Communists desire.

If industry is to survive throughout a Communist revolution, a number of conditions must be fulfilled which are not, at present, fulfilled anywhere.  Consider, for the sake of definiteness, what would happen if a Communist revolution were to occur in England to-morrow.  Immediately America would place an embargo on all trade with us.  The cotton industry would collapse, leaving about five million of the most productive portion of the population idle.  The food supply would become inadequate, and would fail disastrously if, as is to be expected, the Navy were hostile or disorganized by the sabotage of the officers.  The result would be that, unless there were a counter-revolution, about half the population would die within the first twelve months.  On such a basis it would evidently be impossible to erect a successful Communist State.

What applies to England applies, in one form or another, to the remaining countries of Europe.  Italian and German Socialists are, many of them, in a revolutionary frame of mind and could, if they chose, raise formidable revolts.  They are urged by Moscow to do so, but they realize that, if they did, England and America would starve them.  France, for many reasons, dare not offend England and America beyond a point.  Thus, in every country except America, a successful Communist revolution is impossible for economico-political reasons.  America, being self-contained and strong, would be capable, so far as material conditions go, of achieving a successful revolution; but in America the psychological conditions are as yet adverse.  There is no other civilized country where capitalism is so strong and revolutionary Socialism so weak as in America.  At the present moment, therefore, though it is by no means impossible that Communist revolutions may occur all over the Continent, it is nearly certain that they cannot be successful in any real sense.  They will have to begin by a war against America, and possibly England, by a paralysis of industry, by starvation, militarism and the whole attendant train of evils with which Russia has made us familiar.

That Communism, whenever and wherever it is adopted, will have to begin by fighting the bourgeoisie, is highly probable.  The important question is not whether there is to be fighting, but how long and severe it is to be.  A short war, in which Communism won a rapid and easy victory, would do little harm.  It is long, bitter and doubtful wars that must be avoided if anything of what makes Communism desirable is to survive.