Germany’s Prosperous Commerce.

“In South America we Americans were not really competing with her.  She had studied the market and adopted the methods necessary to its satisfaction; we had not.  England was relatively losing her hold there.  In another twenty years Germany surely would have been one of the greatest commercial and manufacturing nations which the world has ever known.  So it was not economic necessity, nor pressure approaching economic necessity, which precipitated this war.

“I think the German people, as they professed to do, did become greatly alarmed over a possibility, magnified into a probability, that Russia, taking up the cause of the Balkan peoples, would obtain Constantinople, that Servia would make her way to the Adriatic, and that all possibility of the expansion of Germany to the southeast would be blocked, and Germany probably became alarmed over England’s intentions—­there were many indications of something close to panic in Germany after it was generally understood that King Edward figured in the pact with France.

“I, for one, do not believe that the German fears of England were well grounded; I do not believe that in the excitement the German mind worked discriminatingly or that it is working with discrimination today.  I think that Germany has presented an extraordinary example of nation-wide mobmindedness in a situation which offered nothing but ruin through war and boundless advantages if she sat tight and waited for some one else to strike the first blow, which, then, probably never would have been struck.

“So, although I have outlined what I think may fairly be regarded as some of the economic conditions contributing to the war, I do not think that it is entirely to be explained by economic causes.

“They fail to account for the actual precipitation of the conflict.  I think that there is no explanation of that, short of recognition of an abnormal reaction of the German mind to a situation the nature of which was mistaken, or, at least, exaggerated.

“And, of course, there were other factors concerning which we shall not know the truth for years, such as the personal influence of individual minds in the German and other Governments.  It will be long before the complete history of the acts and negligence of diplomats and other responsible Ministers will be written.”

I asked Prof.  Giddings if, in his opinion, the struggle is likely to result in any wide and profound change in the economic life of the world.

“Yes,” he replied, “I think it is sure to.  In the first place, for at least half a generation, and perhaps longer, the producing capital of the world will be much smaller than it was before the war.

“But in this speculation we must be cautious, because, so far, the costly war material which has been consumed, such as fortresses destroyed, guns worn out, ammunition consumed, soldiers’ clothing, and in general food, were principally accumulated and paid for long ago.  They have come out of the world’s past production, and their cost already has been written off.