—–­ {162} The law of patents, and the premiums offered by the Society of Arts, suggest improvements, and reward them when made.  To those, to the security of property, and nature of the government, we chiefly owe the great improvements made in England. -=-

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The most necessary thing for our commerce is the support of mercantile credit, without which it is in vain to expect that trade will be carried on to any great amount.  In 1772, when a great failure occasioned want of confidence, the exports of the country fell off above three millions, but its imports fell off very little. {163} In 1793, when the internal credit of the mercantile people was staggered, precisely the same effect was produced.  These are the only two instances of individual credit being staggered to such a degree, as to prevent mercantile men from putting confidence in each other; and they are the only two instances of any very great falling off in the exports in one year, except during the American war, when the chief branches of trade in the country were cut off or diminished.

The falling off, in exports, in 1803, which was very great indeed, (being no less than one-third of the whole,) was not occasioned by the same cause, but appears to have been owing to three others of a different nature.

First, the French had actually shut us out from a great extent of coast, and this occasioned a diminution of exports, which will, in part, be done away, when new channels of conveyance are found out.  It will nevertheless operate in causing some diminution, as circuitous channels render goods more difficult to be introduced, and consequently dearer to the consumers.

The second cause appears to have been, the uncertainty of our merchants where to send the goods, and who to trust, as the fear of the extension of French power took away confidence, and produced a sort of irresolution, which is always hurtful to business.

The third cause of the diminution of trade, no doubt, arose from the cessation of that alarm about property, that has been described as having occasioned so much to be sent from the continent to England.  In other words, it is the return of the pendulum which had vibrated,

—–­ {163} This is a sort of paradox:  when money became scarce, the nation bought nearly as much as ever, but sold less.  This is not the case with individuals, and, at first sight, does not appear natural. -=-

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through a temporary impulse, beyond the natural perpendicular.  Had there been no revolution in France, and had it not been conducted on the principles it was, our trade could not have augmented so fast as it did; but a falling off of fifteen millions in one year is too much to be ascribed to that cause alone.  An examination of the branches that did fall off will elucidate this.

The commerce with the United States of America is one of those that has fallen off, and is the only one that does not appear to be directly connected with these causes.  There are some reasons, however, for thinking that it had an indirect connection with them.