has reduced the birth-rate, just as in the higher
mammals we find a greatly diminished fertility as
compared with the lower, and a much higher survival-rate
among the offspring born. The average duration
of life in this country has increased by about one-third
in the last sixty years, and the birth-rate has fallen
in almost exactly the same proportion. The position
of a nation in the scale of civilisation may almost
be gauged by its births and deaths. The order
in Europe, beginning with the lowest birth-rate, is
France, Belgium, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Switzerland,
Norway, Denmark, Holland, Germany, Spain, Austria,
Italy, Hungary, the Balkan States, Russia. The
order of death-rates, again beginning at the bottom,
is Holland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the
United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Austria,
Serbia, Spain, Bulgaria, Hungary, Roumania, Russia.
These two lists, as will be seen, correspond very
nearly with the scale of descending civilisation, the
only notable exception being the low position of France
in the second list. This anomaly is explained
by the fact that France having a stationary population,
the death-rate in that country corresponds nearly
with the mean expectation of life, whereas in countries
where the population is increasing rapidly, either
by excess of births over deaths or by immigration,
the preponderance of young lives brings the death-rate
down. We must, therefore, be on our guard against
supposing that countries with the lowest death-rates
are necessarily the most healthy. In New Zealand,
for example, the death-rate is under 10 per 1000,
the lowest in the world; and though that country is
undoubtedly healthy, no one supposes that the average
duration of life in New Zealand is a hundred years.
To ascertain whether a nation is long-lived, we must
correct the crude death-rate by taking into account
the average age of the population. When this
correction has been made, a low death-rate, and the
low birth-rate which necessarily accompanies it, is
a sign that the doctors are doing their duty by keeping
their patients alive. If our physicians desire
more maternity cases, they must make more work for
the undertaker. Large families almost always mean
a high infant mortality; and it is significant that
a twelfth child has a very much poorer chance of survival
than a first or second. The agitation for the
endowment of motherhood and the reduction of infant
mortality is therefore futile, because, while other
conditions remain the same, every baby ‘saved’
sends another baby out of the world or prevents him
from coming into it. The number of the people
is not determined by philanthropists or even by parents.
Children will come somehow whenever there is room
for them, and go when there is none. But other
conditions do not remain the same, and it is in these
other conditions that we must seek the causes of expansion
or contraction in the numbers of a community.


