In considering its effect on the Chinese Government, Japan must try to foresee whether the position of China’s present ruler Yuan Shih-kai shall be permanent or not; whether the present Government’s policy will enjoy the confidence of a large section of the Chinese people; whether Yuan Shih-kai will readily agree to the Japanese Government’s proposal to enter into a treaty of alliance with us.  These are points to which we are bound to give a thorough consideration.  Judging by the attitude hitherto adopted by Yuan Shih-kai we know he has always resorted to the policy of expediency in his diplomatic dealings, and although he may now outwardly show friendliness towards us, he will in fact rely upon the influence of the different Powers as the easiest check against us and refuse to accede to our demands.  Take for a single instance, his conduct towards us since the Imperial Government declared war against Germany and his action will then be clear to all.  Whether we can rely upon the ordinary friendly methods of diplomacy to gain our object or not it does not require much wisdom to decide.  After the gigantic struggle in Europe is over, leaving aside America which will not press for advantage, China will not be able to obtain any loans from the other Powers.  With a depleted treasury, without means to pay the officials and the army, with local bandits inciting the poverty-stricken populace to trouble, with the revolutionists waiting for opportunities to rise, should an insurrection actually occur while no outside assistance can be rendered to quell it we are certain it will be impossible for Yuan Shih-kai, single-handed, to restore order and consolidate the country.  The result will be that the nation will be cut up into many parts beyond all hope of remedy.  That this state of affairs will come is not difficult to foresee.  When this occurs, shall we uphold Yuan’s Government and assist him to suppress the internal insurrection with the certain assurance that we could influence him to agree to our demands, or shall we help the revolutionists to achieve a success and realize our object through them?  This question must be definitely decided upon this very moment so that we may put it into practical execution.  If we do not look into the future fate of China but go blindly to uphold Yuan’s Government, to enter into a Defensive Alliance with China, hoping thus to secure a complete realization of our object by assisting him to suppress the revolutionists, it is obviously a wrong policy.  Why?  Because the majority of the Chinese people have lost all faith in the tottering Yuan Shih-kai who is discredited and attacked by the whole nation for having sold his country.  If Japan gives Yuan the support, his Government, though in a very precarious state, may possibly avoid destruction.  Yuan Shih-kai belongs to that school of politicians who are fond of employing craftiness and cunning.  He may be friendly to us for a time, but he will certainly