’Every individual stands defenceless and insulated in the face of this unscrupulous Executive with its thousands of armed hands and its thousands of watching eyes.  The only opposition that is ventured is the abstaining from voting.  Whatever be the office, whatever be the man, the candidate of the prefet comes in; but if he is a man who would have been universally rejected in a state of freedom, the bolder electors show their indignation by their absence.  I do not believe that, even with peace, and with the prosperity which usually accompanies peace, such a Government could long keep down such a country as France.  Whether its existence would be prolonged by a successful war I will not decide.  Perhaps it might be.

’That it cannot carry on a war only moderately successful, or a war which from its difficulties and its distance may be generally believed to be ill managed, still less a war stained by some real disaster, seems to me certain—­if anything in the future of France can be called certain.

’The vast democratic sea on which the Empire floats is governed by currents and agitated by ground-swells, which the Government discovers only by their effects.  It knows nothing of the passions which influence these great, apparently slumbering, masses; indeed it takes care, by stifling their expression, to prevent their being known.  Universal suffrage is a detestable element of government, but it is a powerful revolutionary instrument’

‘But,’ I said, ’the people will not have an opportunity of using that instrument.  All the great elective bodies have some years before them.’

‘That is true,’ said Tocqueville, ’and therefore their rage will break out in a more direct, and perhaps more formidable, form.  Depend on it, this Government can exist, even for a time, only on the condition of brilliant, successful war, or prosperous peace.  It is bound to be rapidly and clearly victorious.  If it fail in this, it will sink—­or perhaps, in its terrors and its struggles, it will catch at the other alternative, peace.

’The French public is too ignorant to care much about Russian aggrandisement.  So far as it fancies that the strength of Russia is the weakness of England, it is pleased with it.  I am not sure that the most dishonourable peace with Nicholas would not give to Louis Napoleon an immediate popularity.  I am sure that it would, if it were accompanied by any baits to the national vanity and cupidity; by the offer of Savoy for instance, or the Balearic Islands.  And if you were to quarrel with us for accepting them, it would be easy to turn against you our old feelings of jealousy and hatred.’

We saw vast columns of smoke on the other side of the river.  Those whom we questioned believed them to arise from an intentional fire.  Such fires are symptoms of popular discontent.  They preceded the revolution of 1830.  They have become frequent of late in this country.