It is not inapposite to mention a circumstance which happened to a friend
of Mr. D____’s, some little time since, at Paris.   He was passing through
France, in his way from Italy, at the time of the general arrest, and was
detained there till the other day.   As soon as he was released from
prison, he applied in person to a member of the Convention, to learn when
he might hope to return to England.   The Deputy replied, "Ma soi je n’en
sais rien [Faith I can’t tell you.]—­If your Messieurs (naming some
members in the opposition) had succeeded in promoting a revolution, you
would not have been in your cage so long—­mais pour le coup il faut
attendre." [But now you must have patience.]  It is not probable the
members he named could have such designs, but Dumont once held the same
language to me; and it is mortifying to hear these miscreants suppose,
that factious or ambitious men, because they chance to possess talents,
can make revolutions in England as they have done in France.

In the papers which gave rise to these reflections, I observe that some of your manufacturing towns are discontented, and attribute the stagnation of their commerce to the war; but it is not unlikely, that the stagnation and failures complained of might have taken place, though the war had not happened.—­When I came here in 1792, every shop and warehouse were over-stocked with English goods.  I could purchase any article of our manufacture at nearly the retail price of London; and some I sent for from Paris, in the beginning of 1793, notwithstanding the reports of war, were very little advanced.  Soon after the conclusion of the commercial treaty, every thing English became fashionable; and so many people had speculated in consequence, that similar speculations took place in England.  But France was glutted before the war; and all speculations entered into on a presumption of a demand equal to that of the first years of the treaty, must have failed in a certain degree, though the two countries had remained at peace.—­Even after a two years cessation of direct intercourse, British manufactures are every where to be procured, which is a sufficient proof that either the country was previously over supplied, or that they are still imported through neutral or indirect channels.  Both these suppositions preclude the likelihood that the war has so great a share in relaxing the activity of your commerce, as is pretended.

But whatever may be the effect of the war, there is no prospect of peace, until the efforts of England, or the total ruin of the French finances,* shall open the way for it.

* By a report of Cambon’s at this time, it appears the expences of France in 1792 were eighteen millions sterling—­in 1793, near ninety millions—­and, in the spring of 1794, twelve and a half millions per month!—­The church bells, we learn from the same authority, cost in coinage, and the purchase of copper to mix with the metal, five or