The abolition of war, therefore, involves the abolition of independent States and their amalgamation into one.  There are many who have hoped for this ideal, expressed by Tennyson when he dreamed of

“The Parliament of man, the Federation of the world.”

That it is the ultimate destiny of mankind to be united under a single Government seems probable enough, but it is rash to assume that that result will be reached either by a process of peaceful negotiation, or by the spread of the imperfect methods of modern democratic government.  The German Empire, with its population of sixty millions, educated by the State, disciplined by the State, relying on the State, and commanded by the State, is as potent in comparison with the less disciplined and less organised communities which surround it as was, in the third century before Christ, the Roman State in comparison with the disunited multitude of Greek cities, the commercial oligarchy of Carthage, and the half-civilised tribes of Gaul and Spain.  Unless the other States of Europe can rouse themselves to a discipline as sound and to an organisation as subtle as those of Prussia and to the perception of a common purpose in the maintenance of their independence, the union of Europe under a single Government is more likely to be brought about by the conquering hand of Germany than by the extension of democratic institutions and of sentimental good understandings.

Proposals for disarmament stand on an entirely different footing from proposals to agree to arbitration.  The State that disarms renounces to the extent of its disarmament the power to protect itself.  Upon what other power is it suggested that it should rely?  In the last analysis the suggestion amounts to a proposal for the abolition of the State, or its abandonment of its claim to represent the right.  Those who propose agreements for disarmament imagine that the suggestion if adopted would lead to the establishment of peace.  Have they considered the natural history of peace as one of the phenomena of the globe which we inhabit?  The only peace of any value is that between civilised nations.  It rests either upon the absence of dispute between them or upon an equilibrium of forces.  During the last few centuries there has usually been at the end of a great European war a great European congress which has regulated for the time being the matters which were in dispute, and the treaty thus negotiated has remained for a long time the basis of the relations between the Powers.  It is always a compromise, but a compromise more or less acceptable to all parties, in which they acquiesce until some change either by growth or decay makes the conditions irksome.  Then comes a moment when one or more of the States is dissatisfied and wishes for a change.  When that has happened the dissatisfied State attempts to bring about the change which it desires, but if the forces with which its wish is likely to be opposed are very great it may long acquiesce in