Believing in the autumn of 1918 that the end of the war was approaching and assuming that the American plenipotentiaries to the Peace Conference would have to be furnished with detailed written instructions as to the terms of the treaty to be signed, I prepared on September 21, 1918, a memorandum of my views as to the territorial settlements which would form, not instructions, but a guide in the drafting of instructions for the American Commissioners.  At the time I had no intimation that the President purposed to be present in person at the peace table and had not even thought of such a possibility.  The memorandum, which follows, was written with the sole purpose of being ready to draft definite instructions which could be submitted to the President when the time came to prepare for the negotiation of the peace.  The memorandum follows: 

   “The present Russian situation, which is unspeakably horrible and
   which seems beyond present hope of betterment, presents new problems
   to be solved at the peace table.

“The Pan-Germans now have in shattered and impotent Russia the opportunity to develop an alternative or supplemental scheme to their ‘Mittel-Europa’ project.  German domination over Southern Russia would offer as advantageous, if not a more advantageous, route to the Persian Gulf than through the turbulent Balkans and unreliable Turkey.  If both routes, north and south of the Black Sea, could be controlled, the Pan-Germans would have gained more than they dreamed of obtaining.  I believe, however, that Bulgaria fears the Germans and will be disposed to resist German domination possibly to the extent of making a separate peace with the Allies.  Nevertheless, if the Germans could obtain the route north of the Black Sea, they would with reason consider the war a successful venture because it would give them the opportunity to rebuild the imperial power and to carry out the Prussian ambition of world-mastery.

“The treaty of peace must not leave Germany in possession directly or indirectly of either of these routes to the Orient.  There must be territorial barriers erected to prevent that Empire from ever being able by political or economic penetration to become dominant in those regions.

“With this in view I would state the essentials for a stable peace as follows, though I do so in the most tentative way because conditions may change materially.  These ‘essentials’ relate to territory and waters, and do not deal with military protection.

“First. The complete abrogation or denouncement of the Brest-Litovsk Treaty and all treaties relating in any way to Russian territory or commerce; and also the same action as to the Treaty of Bucharest.  This applies to all treaties made by the German Empire or Germany’s allies.

   “Second. The Baltic Provinces of Lithuania, Latvia, and Esthonia
   should be autonomous states of a Russian Confederation.