“It is perhaps foolish to prophesy, but I will take the chance.  Two months from now we will still be haggling over the League of Nations and an exasperated world will be cursing us for not having made peace.  I hope that I am a false prophet, but I fear my prophecy will come true.  We are riding a hobby, and riding to a fall.”

By the time the President returned from his triumphal journey to Rome I had completed the articles upon which I had been working; at least they were in form for discussion.  At a conference at the Hotel Crillon between President Wilson and the American Commissioners on January 7, I handed to him the draft articles saying that they were supplemental to my letter of December 23.  He took them without comment and without making any reference to my unanswered letter.

The first two articles of the “International Agreement,” as I termed the document, were identical in language with the memoranda dealing with a mutual covenant and with an international council which I had enclosed in my letter of December 23.  It is needless, therefore, to repeat them here.

Article III of the so-called “Agreement” was entitled “Peaceful Settlements of International Disputes,” and read as follows: 

   “Clause 1

   “In the event that there is a controversy between two or more members
   of the League of Nations which fails of settlement through diplomatic
   channels, one of the following means of settlement shall be employed: 

“1.  The parties to the controversy shall constitute a joint commission to investigate and report jointly or severally to their Governments the facts and make recommendations as to settlement.  After such report a further effort shall be made to reach a diplomatic settlement of the controversy.

   “2.  The parties shall by agreement arrange for the submission of the
   controversy to arbitration mutually agreed upon, or to the Arbitral
   Tribunal hereinafter referred to.

“3.  Any party may, unless the second means of settlement is mutually adopted, submit the controversy to the Supervisory Committee of the International Council; and the Committee shall forthwith (a) name and direct a special commission to investigate and report upon the subject; (b) name and direct a commission to mediate between the parties to the controversy; or (c) direct the parties to submit the controversy to the Arbitral Tribunal for judicial settlement, it being understood that the direction to arbitrate may be made at any time in the event that investigation and mediation fail to result in a settlement of the controversy.

   “Clause 2