Kardashev scale

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Kardashev scale projections ranging from 1900 to 2100.

The Kardashev scale is a general method of classifying how technologically advanced a civilization is, first proposed in 1964 by the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev. It had three categories, based on the amount of usable energy a civilization has at its disposal and increasing logarithmically:

• Type I — A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single planet, approximately 10¹⁶ or 10¹⁷ W ^[1]. The actual figure is quite variable; Earth specifically has an available power of 1.74 ×10¹⁷ W (174 petawatts). (See Earth's energy budget.) Kardashev's original definition was 4 ×10¹² W. (Kardashev had originally defined Type I as a "technological level close to the level presently attained on earth", "presently" meaning 1964^[2].)
• Type II — A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star, approximately 4 ×10²⁶ W. ^[1] Again, this figure is variable; the Sun outputs approximately 3.86 ×10²⁶ W. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 ×10²⁶ W^[2].
• Type III — A civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy, approximately 4 ×10³⁷ W. ^[1] This figure is extremely variable, since galaxies vary widely in size; the stated figure is the approximate power output of the Milky Way. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 ×10³⁷ W.^[2].

All such civilizations are purely hypothetical at this point. However, the Kardashev scale is of use to SETI researchers, science fiction authors, and futurists as a theoretical framework. To put the amount of energy conjectured by this scale into perspective, consider that the ten-second-long burst of neutrinos that follows a supernova releases roughly 10⁴⁶ joules (100 foes).^[3] This is roughly equivalent to 1,000 times the amount of energy that Kardashev speculated would be harnessed in a year by a Type III civilization.

Current status of human civilization

Human civilization is currently somewhere below Type I, as it is able to harness only a portion of the energy that is available on Earth. The current state of human civilization has thus been named Type 0. Although intermediate values were not discussed in Kardashev's original proposal, Carl Sagan argued that they could easily be defined by interpolating and extrapolating the values given above. In 1973, he calculated humanity's civilization type to be 0.7, in relationship to Kardashev's model for Types 0 and I.^[4] He used the formula:

<math>K = \frac{\log_{10}{W}-6} {10}</math>

Value K is a civilization's Kardashev rating and W is its power output in watts. Carl Sagan used 10TW as value W, which was considerably higher than present data suggests.^[5] Sagan's overestimation makes little difference in regards to human civilizations K rating (See Table Below). He further suggested that a letter be suffixed to indicate the amount of information at the civilization's disposal, making 1973 Earth a 0.7H civilization (the H indicates access to 10¹³ bits of information).^[1] International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook^[5] past and projected values for planetary power production yield these corresponding Kardashev scale estimates:

Further information: World energy resources and consumption

Future energy development

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A possible method by which Earth can advance to a Type I civilization is to begin the heavy use of ocean thermal energy conversion and wind turbines to obtain the energy received by Earth's oceans from the Sun. However, there is no known way to successfully utilize the full potential of Earth's energy production without complete coating of the surface with man made structures. In the near and medium future, this is an impossibility given the current lifestyle of humanity. Currently, we are already "harnessing" Earth's production through our dependence upon ecosystem services, which may prove more efficient and sustainable than our own technology well into the future. If humans choose never to fully substitute synthetics for nature's services on this planet, they may still achieve a Type I civilization by assuring that Earth's ecosystem services are maximally functional. A simpler and far less intrusive method would be to place solar collectors with sufficient surface area into orbit. A hypothetical Type II civilization might employ a Dyson sphere or other similar construct in order to utilize all of the energy output by a star, or perhaps more exotic means such as feeding stellar mass into a black hole to generate usable energy. Alternatively, it may occupy a large number of solar systems, absorbing a small but significant fraction of the output of each individual star. A Type III civilization might use the same techniques employed by a Type II civilization, applied to all of the stars of one or more galaxies individually, or perhaps might use other mechanisms not yet proposed.

Further information: Future energy development

Civilization implications

There are many historical examples of civilizations undergoing large-scale transitions, such as the Industrial Revolution. The transition between Kardashev scale levels could potentially represent similarly dramatic periods of social upheaval, since they entail surpassing the hard limits of the resources available in a civilization's existing territory. A common speculation suggests that the transition from Type 0 to Type I might carry a strong risk of self-destruction since there would no longer be room for further expansion on the civilization's home planet, similar to a Malthusian catastrophe.

Extensions to the original scale

The sub-Type I state that human civilization currently occupies was not originally included in the Kardashev scale but is now commonly referred to as "Type 0". Zoltan Galantai has defined a further extrapolation of the scale, a Type IV level which controls the energy output of the visible universe; this is within a few orders of magnitude of 10⁴⁵ W. Such a civilization approaches or surpasses the limits of speculation based on current scientific understanding, and may not be possible. Frank J. Tipler's Omega point would presumably occupy this level, as would the Biocosm hypothesis. Galantai has argued that such a civilization could not be detected, as its activities would be indistinguishable from the workings of nature (there being nothing to compare them to).^[8] However, Milan M. Ćirković has argued that "Type IV" should instead be used to refer to a civilization that has harnessed the power of its supercluster, or "the largest gravitationally bound structure it originated in".^[9] For the Local Supercluster, this would be approximately 10⁴² W. Kaku has discussed a type IV civilization, which could harness "extragalactic" energy sources such as dark energy. See p.317 of Parallel Worlds.^[10]

Classifying fictional civilizations

These categorizations are not firm, and are neither complete nor absolute. Most science fiction space opera writers do not specifically write their works with Kardashev classification in mind. Isaac Asimov's short story The Last Question covers many of the same themes as Kardashev's papers, in its descriptions of the future use of energy and entropy by human civilization; however it does not mention the scale, as it was written in 1956.

• Type I
• Type II
  • The United Federation of Planets of Star Trek^[11]
  • The People of the Worldsphere of Doctor Who first seen in The Also People.
  • The territory of Eelong in the Pendragon Series by D. J. MacHale utilizes all power from a belt of suns known as the Skaa. ^[12]
• Type III
  • The Galactic Republic of Star Wars by George Lucas is a galaxy-spanning society. It has constructed planet-destroying space platforms which expend energy consistent with a Type III civilization. ^[13]
  • The Borg Collective of Star Trek^[11]
  • The Star Maker by Olaf Stapledon. The stellar energy output of the whole galaxy is utilized by the Galactic Community of Worlds. ^[14]
  • Manifold: Time, by Stephen Baxter - in the distant future, descendants of humanity maintain vast Dyson nets around the supermassive black hole remnants of galaxies until they evaporate via Hawking radiation, accessing the energy equivalent of multiple galaxies
• Type IV and above
  • The Time Lords of Doctor Who - in the story The Gallifrey Chronicles the Time Lord Marnal claims "The Time Lords were the Type 4 civilization. We had no equals. We controlled the fundamental forces of the entire universe. Nothing could communicate with us on our level. Most races pray to lesser beings than the Time Lords"^[15]
  • The Dancers at the End of Time by Michael Moorcock - a past civilization is described which consumed all the energy in all the stars in the universe (saving Earth's own sun) in order to fuel an existence where the inheritors of the Earth lived as nigh-omnipotent gods.

Connections with sociology and anthropology

Kardashev's theory can be viewed as the expansion of some social theories, especially from social evolutionism. It is close to the theory of Leslie White, author of The Evolution of Culture: The Development of Civilization to the Fall of Rome (1959). White attempted to create a theory explaining the entire history of humanity. The most important factor in his theory is technology: Social systems are determined by technological systems, wrote White in his book, echoing the earlier theory of Lewis Henry Morgan. As measure of society advancement he proposed the measure energy consumption of a given society (thus his theory is known as energy theory of cultural evolution). He differentiates between five stages of human development. In the first stage, people use energy of their own muscles. In the second stage, they use energy of domesticated animals. In the third stage, they use the energy of plants (which White refers to as agricultural revolution). In the fourth stage, they learn to use the energy of natural resources - such as coal, oil and gas. Finally, in the fifth stage, they harness nuclear energy. White introduced a formula P=E×T, where P measures the advancement of the culture, E is a measure of energy consumed, and T is the measure of efficiency of technical factors utilizing the energy.

References

Further reading

See also

Sustainable development Portal

• Astroengineering
• Clarke's three laws
• Drake equation
• World energy resources and consumption
• Orders of magnitude (power)
• Orders of magnitude (energy)

External links

• Kardashev civilizations
• Detectability of Extraterrestrial Technological Activities
• Flash Animation on Civilizations
• After Kardashev: Farewell to Super Civilizations