The Golden Rule is a rule that provides a guideline for the operation of fiscal policy. The Golden Rule states that over the economic cycle, the Government will borrow only to invest and not to fund current spending. Therefore, over the cycle the current budget (ie, net of investment) must balance or be brought into surplus. The core of the 'golden rule' framework is that, as a general rule, policy should be designed to maintain a stable allocation of public sector resources over the course of the business cycle. Stability is defined in terms of the following ratios: (i) The ratio of public sector net worth to national income (ii) The ratio of public current expenditure to national income (iii) The ratio of public sector income to national income. If national income is growing, and net worth is positive this rule implies that, on average, there should be net surplus of income over expenditure. The justification for the Golden Rule derives from macroeconomic theory. Other things being equal, an increase in government borrowing raises the real interest rate consequently crowding out (reducing) investment because a higher rate of return is required for investment to be profitable. Unless the government uses the borrowed funds to invest in projects with a similar rate of return to private investment, capital accumulation falls, with negative consequences upon economic growth.
The Golden Rule in the United Kingdom
In the UK, the Golden Rule was officially adopted by Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. There is speculation recently as to where Gordon Brown has kept to these rules as the treasury has moved the cycle to two years earlier (from 1999 to 1997). The implications of this are to allow for £18 billion - £22 billion more of borrowing. The Government's other fiscal rule is the Sustainable Investment Rule, which requires it to keep debt at a "prudent level". This is currently set at below 40% of GDP in each year of the current cycle.
References
- Fiscal Policy in the UK (HM Treasury)
- HM Treasury. Reforming Britain's economic and financial policy: towards greater economic stability. Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2001. ISBN 0-333-96611-2.
