A scenario is any imaginary description of a possible future problem, which can be used by the potential actors to plan policy and strategy. As such it is closely related to game theory. Scenarios have been extensively used in defence, with a large number of models of potential conflicts being set up to enable conventional and nuclear force requirements to be calculated, and to study the political, diplomatic and military consequences of a variety of postures that might be adopted. At its most technical, a scenario can be the basis for extremely complicated and even computerized simulations.
An example of a purely domestic British political scenario might be the result of an election in which no party held a majority in parliament, and where the previous prime minister, though now the leader of a minority party, refused to resign. The scenario, especially if built with sufficient realistic detail, would allow examination of the adequacy of our understanding of, for example, the constitutional position of the monarch, and perhaps help in the development of theories about the need for a written constitution. It is no different in principle from a technique sometimes used by physical scientists called a ‘thought-experiment’. Increasingly university departments, under pressure to modernize their teaching techniques, are using scenario-building along with simulation games to help students grasp the dynamics of politics.
This is the complete article, containing 224 words
(approx. 1 page at 300 words per page).
