Routledge Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition
econometrics (C1, C2, C3)
The measurement of economic relationships using statistical techniques, and the testing of economic theories. Econometrics has become the basis for economic forecasting.
It was inseparable from mathematics and statistics as an academic discipline until the foundation of the Econometrics Society in 1931. Although a quantitative approach to economics goes back to PETTY, in the twentieth century it owes its origins to Henry Moore’s attempt in 1911 to provide statistical evidence for MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY theory. Gradually it changed its emphasis from searching for constant economic laws to probabilistic models.
The major techniques most frequently used are MULTIPLE REGRESSION, TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARES and a multitude of tests to prevent problems such as AUTOCORRELATION. After 1945, the growth of macroeconomics and the more sophisticated study of consumer behaviour inspired a great volume of econometric work. The data used are either TIME SERIES provided by official governmental statistical organizations or CROSS-SECTION DATA collated through surveys.
See also: Cowles Commission
References
Griliches, Z.
(1983) Handbook of Econometrics, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Haavelmo, T. (1944) ‘The probability approach in econometrics’, Econometrica (Supplement) 12:1–115.
Marchi, N.de and Gilbert, C. (eds) (1989) History and Methodology of Econometrics, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Pagan, A. (1987) ‘Three econometric methodologies: a critical appraisal’, Journal of Economic Surveys 1:3–24.
Pagan, A.R. and Wickens, M.R. (1989) ‘A survey of some recent econometric methods’, Economic Journal 99:962–1025.
Walters, A.A. (1968) An Introduction to Econometrics, London: Macmillan.
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