The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't - Chapter 13: What You Don't Know Can Hurt You Summary & Analysis

Nate Silver
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Chapter 13: What You Don't Know Can Hurt You Summary and Analysis

It is possible that the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 could have been predicted. Japan was making noise about expansion and they were signaling their intentions by their subversive maneuvering and hostile actions. Total radio silence was the most alarming signal. Conclusions were made about the whereabouts of their fleet. No one concluded that it was heading to Hawaii. Silver met with former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld about the attack. He commented that the US prepared for sabotage because there were so many Japanese in Hawaii but they didn't prepare for an out-and-out attack.

In her book, "Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision," Roberta Wohlstetter considered a "signal" as evidence that tells something useful about the enemy. After both the attack on Pearl Harbor and the terrorist...

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This section contains 954 words
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Buy The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't Study Guide
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