Chapter 6: How to Drown in Three Feet of Water Summary and Analysis

While political predictions are accompanied by the caveat that there is a margin of error, economic numbers are presented with more certainty. When an economic prediction is off, surprise is often expressed by experts and by the media. In actuality, there should be no surprise because historically they have not been particularly accurate. Economic forecasters even missed recessions when they were already underway. Economic forecasts don't emphasize the substantial difference between their predictions and actual outcomes.

A devastating flood hit Grand Forks, North Dakota. There was no loss of life but the river spilled more than two miles in the city and most homes were either damaged or lost. The damage of the flood could have been prevented or minimized with sandbagging and the diverting...