Crime statistics compiled by the FBI in its yearly crime index show what many in the law enforcement field consider to be an encouraging trend. From 1990 to 1995, the crime rate declined steadily in every category: murders, rapes, assaults, robberies, burglaries, and thefts. Sociologists and criminologists debate the explanation for this downward turn in crime rates; improved economic conditions and tougher criminal justice measures are two of the theories offered. Other experts, however, dispute whether the decline is significant, pointing out that crime rates in many categories are still higher than in the mid1980s. These scholars also deny that the trend of decreasing crime rates will continue.

James Alan Fox, dean of the College of Criminal Justice at Northeastern University in Boston, is among those who believe that the recent drop in crime rates is merely the lull before an approaching crime storm. The reason for the current...