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21st Century Earth

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About 305 pages (91,403 words)

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A Forecast of Ecological Collapse Is Inaccurate

Kevin Kelly

In the following viewpoint, excerpted from his book Out of Control: The Rise of Neo-Biological Civilization, Kevin Kelly argues that the “Limits to Growth” simulation model that forecasts unsustainable global growth and an ecological collapse suffers from a number of flaws, including narrow and wrong assumptions, which undermine its accuracy. Kelly concludes that the model needs a complete overhaul because it lacks the requisite features—such as the ability to learn and to simulate growth—to make accurate forecasts. Kelly is the executive editor of Wired, a monthly magazine covering computers and telecommunications.

As you read, consider the following questions:

1. What is the web of “stocks” and “flows,” according to Kelly?
2. In the author’s opinion, why are locality and regionalism important features of a global simulation model?
3. According to Kelly, why does the Limits to Growth model inevitably indicate a collapse"

In the 1970s, after.....

This is a free excerpt of 150 words. This section contains 2,562 words. This article contains 91,403 words (approx. 305 pages at 300 words per page).

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Copyrights
21st Century Earth from Opposing Viewpoints and Opposing Viewpoints in World History. ©2001-2006 by Greenhaven Press, Inc., an imprint of The Gale Group. All rights reserved.

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