The Rise of Probabilistic and Statistical Thinking
Overview
The rise of probabilistic and statistical thinking is considered one of the most important accomplishments of nineteenth-century science. Probability and statistics played a major role as science changed the way our world was understood. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, science involved the search for universal and absolute truths. By the end of the century, scientists were dealing with the notion that some things could only be known to varying degrees of certainty. This degree of certainty was measured by probability.
Background
Although the roots of probability extend far back into history, the beginning of mathematical probability is usually traced to a series of letters exchanged between the French mathematicians Pierre de Fermat (1601-1665) and Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) in the seventeenth century. This correspondence was based on the problem of how to distribute an amount of money wagered on a game if that game is interrupted before its conclusion. The correspondence between Pascal and Fermat influenced Christiaan Huygens (1629-1695), who published the first text on probability in 1657. Much of the writing on mathematical probability in the next 100 years was presented in gambling terms and examples.
The changes brought about by the development of probability in the nineteenth century are best understood in the context of developments in the previous century.
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