Investor's Business Daily, April 16th, 2007
Defense: China may soon deploy its first aircraft carrier as experts warn our naval supremacy is being challenged by Beijing. As the Chinese proverb goes: May we live in interesting times.
Commenting last month on China's announcement of an 18% increase in military spending, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said: "I think that greater transparency would help from the standpoint 15f the Chinese in terms of both what they're doing and what their strategies are, their intent in modernizing their forces."
One of China's intentions, as we have noted previously, is to challenge the U.S. Navy on the high seas. Last month, another piece of the Chinese puzzle fell into place.
The Beijing-funded Wen Wei Po newspaper out of Hong Kong quoted an unnamed high-ranking Chinese military source saying that if current research and development proceeds smoothly, China could have its first aircraft carrier operational by 2010.
In 1998, China purchased the former Soviet Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier Varyag from Ukraine. At first, the story was that the vessel was to be a tourist attraction or a floating museum. But satellite photos of the carrier at anchor in China's Dalian shipyard in northern China show that extensive work has been done with the Varyag painted in the standard gray of the People's Liberation Navy.
Chen Yung-Kang, head of the Taiwan Defense Ministry's Integration Evaluation Office, said last November that China is building its own aircraft carrier and plans to launch its first carrier battle group by 2020.
"The aircraft carrier under construction is modeled on the Varyag and will be equipped with the J-11 warplanes (that are) a copy of the Russian Sukhoi Su-27," Chen said.
Can China really challenge the U.S. Navy? The Soviets tried to build a carrier force and failed. Only the U.S., Britain and Imperial Japan have successfully used carriers in battle, and we currently have the only carrier battle groups worthy of the name. Whether the Chinese carrier will be a refurbished Varyag or an indigenous copy, some analysts are taking the Chinese naval buildup seriously.
A report on U.S.-China relations released this month by a blue-ribbon Council on Foreign Relations panel led by retired Adm. Dennis Blair, former head of Pacific Command, contained the recommendation that the Pentagon consider "shifting the balance of its naval forces toward the Pacific from the Atlantic."
"By 2010, most of China's anti-access forces will be in place, making it very difficult to use Pacific forces to help Taiwan," said Richard Fisher, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center and an expert on the Chinese military. "Unless we double the number of our aircraft carriers and triple our bomber fleet, China is going to be a peer competitor by 2030."
Fisher has also made note of an incident in October when a Chinese Song-class attack sub surfaced within weapons distance of the USS Kitty Hawk off Okinawa. "Given the long range of new Chinese sub-launched anti-ship missiles and those purchased from Russia, this incident is very serious," Fisher said.
China is deploying an impressive surface fleet, too -- one that with an aircraft carrier could form an impressive battle group. It includes Sovremenny-class guided missile destroyers purchased from the Russians. They come equipped with supersonic, sea-skimming SS-N-22 Sunburn cruise missiles designed for one purpose -- to attack American carrier battle groups.
In comments last year to Communist Party members and published in the People's Liberation Army Daily, Chinese President Hu Jintao urged his country to build a "powerful navy that adapts to the needs of our military's historical mission in this new century and at this new stage."
Anchors away.
Copyright 2007 Investor's Business Daily, Inc.
