Investor's Business Daily, May 29th, 2007
Defense: U.S. estimates of Chinese military capabilities and intentions may be understated, a new Pentagon report shows. Beijing clearly has more on its mind than the 2008 Olympics.
According to the 2007 edition of the Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power, China is developing capabilities beyond regional war at a pace that both surprises and concerns U.S. officials. The capabilities include a new generation of ballistic missile submarines and a first-strike attack on our military satellites.
The report identifies five new Jin-class ballistic missile submarines that will each be outfitted with a dozen 5,000-mile-range JL-2 missiles. The Type 094 Jin class changes the strategic nuclear balance significantly and makes the need for a robust U.S. national missile defense even stronger.
China developed the first-generation Xia-class ballistic missile submarine in the 1980s. Only one was built. It rarely left port and had limited operational capability, mainly due to the short range of its missiles.
China has deployed a road-mobile, solid-propellant intercontinental range strategic missile, the DF-31, and is expected to field in the near future the extended range DF-31A, which can target most of the world, including the continental United States.
The JL-2, a submarine-launched version of the DF-31, is equipped with multiple warheads and penetration aids that could reach the U.S. mainland from Chinese coastal waters.
"If China puts these systems in place effectively on the scale reported in sea-basing and land-basing, it will now have a robust second-strike capability," said Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College. "What was gray before is now becoming clear. China can now effectively fight a nuclear war."
During the Cold War, the U.S. was helped in tracking Soviet submarines by the fact they had to pass through narrow straits to head out to sea. China is building a brand new naval base on is southern island of Hainan, giving its submarines easier access to the deep ocean than the Soviets had.
Like the Germans in two world wars, the Chinese see the submarine as a relatively easy and quick way to challenge a rival's supremacy on the high seas. As John J. Tkacik, senior fellow in Asian studies at the Heritage Foundation, reports, China in the last five years has acquired 20 state-of-the-art, super quiet, diesel electric submarines, increasing its fleet of modern submarines to 55.
Chinese naval strength is building rapidly and its capabilities are growing. Its undersea warfare capabilities were demonstrated last October, when a Chinese Song-class attack submarine surfaced undetected within weapons distance of the USS Kitty Hawk off Okinawa. The sub was armed with Russian-made, wake-homing torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles.
Assistant Defense Secretary Peter Rodman admitted last year that the U.S. was "caught by surprise by the appearance of new systems that suddenly appear fully developed."
Another of those systems the report makes note of is Chinese anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. Bill Gertz of the Washington Times quotes U.S. intelligence officials as estimating that by 2010 China's ASAT missiles will be able to deliver a knockout blow to many U.S. military and surveillance satellites.
The strategic significance of China's Jan. 11 anti-satellite test in which a ground-launched missile destroyed an old Chinese weather satellite with a kinetic-kill vehicle cannot be overestimated.
America's surveillance and communication satellites are the eyes and ears of our high tech military and perform vital command and control functions.
Appropriately, the Pentagon report captures the essence of Chinese military and geopolitical strategy by quoting former supreme leader Deng Xiaoping advice to "hide our capacities and bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile."
As we have noted on multiple occasions, China is increasing its ability and willingness to project power and influence around the world. Its ultimate weapon may be patience.
