RasmussenReports.com, July 31st, 2006
Immigration is an issue clearly on voters’ minds according to the results of a recent Rasmussen Reports poll. An overwhelming majority of the 1,000 adults surveyed—78%—say that the issue of immigration will play an important role in their decision making when they go to the polls this November. Only 17% say the issue is not of importance to them.
In some border states like Arizona, immigration is considered the single most important issue.
The national survey comes on the heels of a proposal introduced in Congress this week by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) and Congressman Mike Pence (R-Indiana), which takes a two-step approach to addressing the immigration debate. First, their proposal would require the federal government to secure the U.S.’ borders through a comprehensive surveillance program. If after a two-year implementation period the president can certify that the country’s borders are indeed secure, a temporary worker program can begin.
Public response to the proposal is mixed. Thirty-nine percent (39%) favor the plan that would require first securing the border and then provide opportunities to legalize the status of currently undocumented workers; 43% are opposed (see crosstabs).
However, support increases when respondents are told that as part of the proposal, illegal immigrants would have to leave the U.S. and apply for re-entry. Providing that they have a job awaiting them, these workers could then return to the U.S. legally. After working legally for a period of 17 years, these individuals would then be able to apply for citizenship. After learning about these additional provisions of the proposal, 55% say they favor the measure and 31% are opposed.
The fact that results shift so dramatically as new information is provided to respondents indicates low public awareness of the new proposal. While opinions may shift on specific proposals, public opinion has been remarkably consistent on the overall objectives of immigration reform.
Sixty percent (60%) of American adults now say that gaining control over the U.S. borders is more important than legalizing the status of undocumented workers already living here. Just 29% take the opposite view and say that legalizing undocumented workers is the priority.
This suggests that ultimate public support for the Hutchison-Pence proposal will depend on perceptions of how seriously the legislation addresses concerns about controlling the borders. If it is seen as primarily a vehicle for legalizing the status of currently illegal aliens, support will plummet. If it is ultimately perceived primarily as a serious approach to reducing illegal border crossings, public support will increase.
Rasmussen Reports surveys have consistently shown that most Americans favor a welcoming immigration policy. A majority believes that all should be welcomed except national security threats, criminals, and welfare seekers. At the same time, however, very solid majorities believe that the first priority of immigration reform should be to gain control of the U.S. border.
Earlier this year, the U.S. Senate passed legislation that was primarily concerned with addressing the status of the roughly 11 million illegal aliens living in the United States. That legislation was overwhelmingly favored by Senate Democrats but opposed by a majority of Senate Republicans. Still, it had enough GOP support to survive.
The House of Representatives passed a different piece of legislation that focused on controlling the border and reducing illegal immigration. The House bill did not address the status of those living here illegally.
Initially, the chattering class in the nation’s capitol assumed that the only question was how long it would take the House to accept the Senate version of the legislation. They were wrong. Strong public reaction moved the debate in the other direction with Senators looking for ways to show they are more serious about the border control aspects of the debate.
The Hutchison-Pence proposal is an attempt to reach a compromise by putting enforcement first but still addressing the issue of undocumented workers already in the U.S.
Throughout the debate, voters have been fairly evenly divided as to which political party they trust more on the issue of immigration. Currently, among all voters, Democrats have a slight edge 40% to 32%. However, Republicans are trusted more by those who say the issue is very important.
The national telephone survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 25-26, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology)
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling every Senate and Governor's race at least once a month in 2006.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
