Investor's Business Daily, August 15th, 2007
Geopolitics: Vladimir Putin's Russia is on the prowl, forging strategic alliances and building its military on a scale not seen since the Cold War. Once again, there's a bear in the woods.
The U.S. Air Force has denied Moscow's boast that a Russian strategic bomber actually flew over or even got close to the U.S. military base on the Pacific island of Guam. But a Pentagon spokesman confirmed the sortie.
It seems that Russia's strategic bombers have returned to their Cold War practice of flying long-haul missions to areas patrolled by the U.S. and NATO. But judging from its furious military program, this was no mere exercise in nostalgia.
Last week, Major-General Pavel Androsov, commander of long-range aviation for the Russian Air Force, announced at a press conference that two turboprop TU95-Ms bombers from a base near Blagoveshchensk in the Far East made a 13-hour round-trip flight to the vicinity of Guam and "exchanged smiles" with U.S. pilots sent up to intercept it.
The TU-95 is considered by some to be a Cold War relic, but it can cover the globe in a reconnaissance role as well as launch cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. The day after the Guam sortie, the chief of staff of the Russia's air force announced that Soviet bombers based in southwest Russia had tested this capability. "We fired eight cruise missiles, and all hit bull's eye," said Lieutenant-General Igor Khvorov.
The resurgent Russia of Vladimir Putin, fueled by energy revenues, is doing much more, of course. Ariel Cohen, a Russia specialist at the Heritage Foundation, says: "Flush with cash, Russia today is constantly looking for avenues to boost its geopolitical muscle. That has translated into some very ambitious strategic programs."
Russian defense spending will increase by as much as 30% this year, following budget increases of 22% and 27% in 2005 and 2006. Cohen says that Russia is embarking on a five-year military modernization plan costing $189 billion. The program, announced by Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov on Feb. 6, "includes new nuclear submarines; aircraft carriers; a fleet of supersonic Tu-160 bombers; and development of a fifth generation fighter jet," Cohen said.
Russia plans to put to sea eight fleet ballistic missile submarines equipped with the Bulava-M missile, a variant of its land-mobile Topol-M (SS-27) ICBM. Russia has begun mass production of the Topol-M, after a successful spring test. The Bulava-M has a range of almost 5,000 miles and can carry 10 nuclear warheads. The Yuri Dolgorukii, the first sub to carry the Bulava, was launched in April.
In addition to the Bulava, Russia announced at the end of May the successful test of the RS-24, a new ICBM with multiple maneuverable warheads designed to get past our missile defenses.
Moscow is also building the Iskander-M (SS-26), a short-range tactical missile designed for the European theatre with a range of 300 kilometers. The range might be increased to 500 kilometers, above INF limits. Russia has declared it might suspend its compliance with INF if our plans to deploy anti-missile interceptors and radars in Poland and the Czech Republic go forward.
Russia also has made noises about re-establishing a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean. "The Mediterranean is very important strategically," Russian Admiral Vladimir Masorin said during a recent tour of Russia's Black Sea base in the Ukrainian port of Secastopol. "I propose that, with the involvement if the Northern and Black fleets, the Russian navy should restore its permanent presence there."
Ivan Safronov, the journalist who died in a mysterious fall from a Moscow building earlier this year, reported that Moscow would refurbish facilities in the Syrian port of Tartus, where the Soviet Navy was based during the Cold War.
The reports of Russia's exit from the world stage were grossly exaggerated. With Putin in power, a czar is born.
