AP News, October 11th, 2007
Pssst. Don't tell Iowa and New Hampshire, but people scattered all around the country could well be voting at the same time or even beat them to the polls this winter.
Quite apart from the states rushing to hold their nominating contests ever sooner, voters in many parts of the country are being treated to increasingly lenient rules allowing them to cast ballots weeks before the primaries.
As a result, there will be some of the heaviest and earliest early voting ever in the presidential nominating season. And that, in turn, could complicate an already fast-moving nominating process.
"It's a distinct possibility that people could be casting ballots for candidates who are out of the race by the time their vote is counted," said Dan Tokaji, an elections law expert from the Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University.
In California, for example, the presidential primary has been moved up a month to Feb. 5, and voters can cast absentee ballots as early as Jan. 7. Iowa and New Hampshire, which traditionally hold the leadoff caucus and primary, haven't nailed down their dates yet but are looking at early January.
The absentee vote in California is no small thing. In 2004, about a third of the state's primary ballots were cast early. In 2006, the figure was 47 percent.
Nearly 4 million voters in California have signed up as "permanent absentee voters," meaning early ballots for the primaries will automatically pop up in their mailboxes.
Arizona, where 41 percent of voters cast early ballots in the 2004 general election, also will be quick out of the primary starting gate. Early voting begins Jan. 10 for the Feb. 5 primary.
Early voting, initially popular mostly in the West, gained momentum after the contentious 2000 presidential election, which inspired a wave of election overhauls. At least 34 states now offer some form of early voting, according to Paul Gronke, who directs the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College and works with electionline.org, part of the Pew Center on the States.
As the number of states with early voting has proliferated, so has the variety of methods.
In Florida, which has a Jan. 29 primary, the first day of in-person early voting is Jan. 14. Absentee ballots could start reaching voters' mailboxes in mid to late December, and can be mailed right back. More than a third of the state's voters cast early ballots in the 2004 general election.
In Tennessee, where 45 percent of voters cast early ballots in the 2004 general election, in-person early voting starts Jan. 16, and absentee ballots for the Feb. 5 primary will be mailed out Dec. 22.
New Jersey, also with a Feb. 5 primary, is one of the newest states to drop its requirement that voters supply some reason why they should be allowed to vote early. Absentee ballots can be requested a month ahead of the primary, or starting Jan. 5.
In South Carolina, someone could vote right now, under very limited circumstances. A person who is going to be unable to vote on primary day and unable to obtain a traditional absentee ballot by mail this winter can request a blank absentee ballot now, write in their preferred candidate and send it in, said Chris Whitmire, a spokesman for the State Election Commission.
So, yes, South Carolinians can vote even if they plan to spend the next six months hiking the Appalachian Trail.
The implications of the early voting boom are not lost on the leading contenders for the GOP and Democratic nominations. Not only do they have to simultaneously court voters in the states with the earliest primaries and caucuses _ Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada _ they've got to account for the fact that early voting already will be under way in other states.
The California page of Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign Web site prominently features a big red button that declares: "Vote Early." Viewers can fill out a request right there to obtain an absentee ballot. Clinton's campaign plans an aggressive vote-by-mail effort targeting solid Clinton supporters and promising demographic groups such as older women. South Carolina, where people 65 and older are among those who can vote early, is another state on the Clinton list.
"If you're a major candidate and you hope to win, you do pay attention to it," said Carl Forti, political director for Mitt Romney's campaign. "In reality, the first votes are not going to be cast in Iowa."
There are pros and cons for both voters and candidates.
Voters love the flexibility, but they also can get stung if something significant happens after they vote. Some might want to hold on to their ballots to see what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire.
"There isn't as much strategic voting out there as you think," said John Fortier, an American Enterprise Institute fellow who has written a book on early voting. He said most early voters don't cast their ballots until the last week or two before an election.
Candidates, for their part, like the idea of being able to lock up some votes early, so they can more narrowly target late get-out-the-vote efforts. But those without a lot of money may be stretched too thin to mobilize early voters while they're fighting the traditional primary and caucus races.
What do political activists in Iowa and New Hampshire think about other voters getting a head start through early voting? They've been too busy fending off states that want to move up their actual primaries and caucuses to give it much thought.
And their own residents shouldn't expect to vote early themselves: New Hampshire offers absentee ballots only to those who can't make it on primary day. And to be part of the Iowa caucuses, you still have to show up.
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Associated Press writers Ann Sanner and Michael Blood contributed to this report.
