AP News, January 18th, 2007
European Union officials and diplomats in Belgium expect a U.N. mediator to recommend limited sovereignty for Serbia's breakaway province of Kosovo that could eventually lead to full independence for the region, a U.N. protectorate since 1999.
Mediator Martti Ahtisaari's proposal, expected soon after Serbian elections Sunday, must go to the U.N. Security Council for approval and is likely to result in a diplomatic clash between Russia and the U.S. Moscow strongly backs Belgrade's claims that Kosovo should remain part of Serbia while Washington has called for full independence for the territory of 2 million people.
The finding could also result in a tug-of-war within the European Union between countries that oppose secession _ including Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia _ and those that have backed it, such as Britain, the Netherlands and others.
Whatever happens, the EU itself plans to keep a mission in Kosovo to oversee the implementation of the accord.
According to an EU report made available to The Associated Press on Thursday, the EU mission will replace the U.N. administration that is running Kosovo.
The EU's top envoy in Kosovo likely will have veto power over laws and government decisions, and the authority to fire officials "acting in a manner designed to prevent implementation of the settlement."
The system would be similar to that which was implemented in Bosnia after the war ended there in 1995. There, a U.N. representative had final say in administrative issues and had the power to block laws or fire ministers.
In an apparent concession to Serbia, the EU document also says the Serb minority in Kosovo will retain direct links with Belgrade, whether it gains some form of independence or remains a self-governing part of Serbia.
Although details of Ahtisaari's package of recommendations remain secret, diplomats in Brussels say they have learned some of what it will contain.
The officials, who all spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on the issue, said they expect Ahtisaari to recommend "conditional and controlled independence" for Kosovo, eventually leading to full independence.
During the period of "provisional independence," which would be supervised by the European Union and other international bodies, Kosovo's government would be expected to meet a series of benchmarks.
These would include establishing respect for human rights and reaching an agreement with the Serbian minority about its future status.
A fixed timetable for Kosovo's ethnic Albanian government to achieve these goals is not likely, officials said, but Kosovo would not move forward to full independence until all conditions are met.
A Western diplomat based in Brussels said that during the period of provisional independence envisioned by the Ahtisaari plan, Kosovo would not be granted U.N. membership, nor have its own armed forces. But it would be effectively free of Serbia.
On Jan. 14, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the decision on Kosovo's status must ensure that Serbia's fragile democracy is not weakened.
Merkel, who holds the European Union's rotating presidency, declined to say exactly what future she envisions for the province.
"It is important that, on one side, the wish of the Kosovars for more independence be satisfied _ but not at the price that we then have troubled situations in Serbia and democracy there is weakened," Merkel said in a TV interview.
Belgrade has insisted that Kosovo _ which has been administered by the United Nations since a brief war in 1999 _ must remain part of Serbia, though with a wide-ranging autonomy. But ethnic Albanian politicians in the provincial capital of Pristina say nothing short of outright independence will be acceptable.
The highly charged issue has serious international implications. Kosovo has been part of Serbia since medieval times, and any U.N.-approved move to grant it independence or greater autonomy will inevitably be regarded as a precedent in other independence-minded provinces elsewhere in the world.
