Investor's Business Daily, March 20th, 2007
Nuclear Politics: Russia's refusal to send fuel to Iran for nuclear enrichment pulls the rug out from under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nuclear ambitions. A sign Russia's finally getting serious?
Iran was right on the cusp of completing its Bushehr nuclear reactor, a $1 billion project under construction since the days of the Shah.
But something happened in the past two weeks as Ahmadinejad prepared to celebrate -- Russia suddenly announced it would halt the last bit of construction of the 97% complete project because Iran wasn't paying its bills.
Now Russia's Security Council Secretary, Igor Ivanov, reportedly has told diplomats that Russia won't send fuel to Iran either unless it stops nuclear enrichment for weapons production.
Russia's since backtracked slightly, saying the fuel halt is only related to Iran's deadbeating. But Iran vigorously denies it's missing payments and threatens to make public its bank statements that show them.
It's no big deal to the West either way. If Russia wants to save face for its involvement in this commercial nuclear project and its defense of Iran's nuclear arms program, what's important is that it has come to its senses about what it has been supporting before it's too late.
Russia has since withdrawn its 2,000 technicians, engineers and specialists from the Bushehr project, U.S. and European diplomats say, and it risks losing a $1 billion contracted payment for a project it has worked on since 1995.
Nevertheless, a new willingness to keep nuclear weapons out of Iran's hands enhances Russia's stature.
Russia has gone public about its Iran estrangement, which probably means it's serious. It's always difficult to read Russia's motives or forecast its moves, but at a bare minimum, a public announcement means that a move backward would cost Russia its credibility.
U.S. officials say they're somewhat baffled by Russia's positive moves. "We are not sure what mix of commercial and political motives are at play here," said a Bush administration official in Washington.
Nevertheless, the groundwork for the squeeze on Iran probably was based on the U.S.'s quiet diplomacy, which seems to finally be working.
As of last week, six major nations announced they would support U.N. sanctions on Iran after it failed to meet a Feb.22 deadline to halt uranium enrichment. The group includes Russia, along with the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany and China.
Now Indonesia seems to be moving from a pro-Iran stance to at least a neutral one at the U.N., a critical help because of its position as the world's largest Muslim country.
That move likely is the result of a carefully crafted diplomatic maneuver by the U.S. and personal lobbying by President Bush himself. On a less cordial front, even Iran's ally, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, uncharacteristically has made noises about opposing all proliferation.
Private-sector efforts to "defund terror" and divest from companies doing business with Iran, such as Washington-based divestterror.org, could be having an effect, too.
Russia's welcome move against Iran is late -- but it's probably the most important move so far.
Russia was the biggest obstacle to a peaceful Iran because of its direct aid to Iran's nuclear program. Russia fiercely defended Iran's right to nukes even as the International Atomic Energy Agency made it clear Iran was lying about its nuclear enrichment program.
Those days seem to be gone and Iran's making bitter noises about Russia, calling it "an unreliable partner" and saying its move is political.
That means pressure is building on Ahmadinejad, who staked so much political capital on completion of his nuclear program. The Iranian leader risks losing political support at home and could be forced to answer questions about the state of Iran's economy in the wake of completely avoidable sanctions.
Russia's shift could be dismissed as peer pressure, diplomacy or unpaid bills, but there are a few signs it might be a sincere tilt toward the West. It coincides with other moves in the past month, whose common denominator signals a growing closeness to the West.
Two stand out:
On the economic front, Russia rejected the creation of a global natural gas cartel after months of support. Because Russia has a great deal of the world's supply of natural gas, its new coolness to cartels could sink the effort, as well as keep Russia's economic position strong.
Meanwhile, on the cultural front, Putin made an intriguing religious move toward the West, after meeting with Pope Benedict XVI.
Radio Free Europe reported that Putin was expected to ask the pope for a plot of land in Vatican City from which to pray. Religious analysts saw it as a potential site to build a base for unity talks with the Russian Orthodox Church, in schism with Rome for almost a millennium.
Meanwhile, Putin's moves toward market-friendly economics, such as his decision to free Russia's currency, drop capital controls and amass $300 billion in foreign reserves, suggest that he wants to make Russia an economic superpower in its own right -- instead of a third-world state constantly in conflict with the West.
Now that the nuclear arming of Iran has hit a roadblock put up by Russia, a major global danger might soon abate.
Copyright 2007 Investor's Business Daily, Inc.
