CommenTerry, February 9th, 2007
You've heard of fantasy football leagues. You've heard of fantasy baseball leagues. Many of you have probably participated in them. But why not fantasy presidential election leagues for political junkies and amateur pundits? Below, I have roughly outlined how one of these leagues could work. Please feel free to suggest any enhancements or tweaks in your comments.
(1) Each league could consist of anywhere from 10 to 20 players.
(2) Play would begin with the Iowa Caucuses and continue through the final primary. After that, the player with the most accumulated points from the nominating contests in both parties combined would be declared the winner.
(3) The Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary would serve as elimination rounds only, and would include no point accumulation. However, as it is for the candidates themselves, these two contests could potentially prove to be the most pivotal ones of all for each player.
(4) Two weeks prior to the Iowa Caucuses, each player would be required to submit his or her projected order of finish of each candidate in both parties for that contest. This is an elimination round because, in order for a player to carry any given candidate over to the New Hampshire Primary, that candidate must finish either in the exact position projected by that player or just one position above that projection.
For example, let's say I pick Mitt Romney to finish second in the Iowa GOP Caucuses. If Romney finishes either first or second in that contest, then I get to carry him over to New Hampshire. However, if Romney finishes third or lower, I have lost him for the rest of the nominating season.
Obviously, first place is the highest risk position to project because there is no position higher. Therefore, whichever candidate a player picks for first in Iowa must finish in that exact position or that player loses that candidate for the remainder of the game. To offset this risk and to discourage players from penciling "throw-away" candidates like Dennis Kucinich into the first position in their projections, some extra incentive would be offered to players who correctly pick the first-place finisher. These players would get to keep one other candidate that they would ordinarily lose, no matter how far off they were from his or her actual finish. It would be a veritable keep-a-candidate-free card!
(5) Within 48 hours of the completion of the Iowa Caucuses, each player would be required to submit his or projected order of finish of each candidate (that is still available to them) in both parties for the New Hampshire Primary. Otherwise, the rules for New Hampshire would be exactly the same as those for Iowa. (NOTE: I suggest that the Nevada Democratic Caucuses, scheduled to be conducted on the Saturday between Iowa and New Hampshire, be ignored by the fantasy game, since its actual impact has not been established).
(6) For the rest of the way, players would be accumulating points, but only for candidates that were still available to them after the Iowa and New Hampshire elimination rounds. Like some of the candidates, many players would be completely busted at this point, and would likely drop out. This would probably just leave the three to five players in each league that still had a realistic chance to win.
(7) The point accumulation process in the remaining primaries and caucuses would work like this:
For each candidate still available to him or her, each player would be required to submit a projected order of finish in each primary or caucus (it can be different for each one). The cutoff for each submission could be set at 48 hears prior to each respective contest.
For any candidate finishing in the exact position as projected, that player is awarded an amount of points equaling that candidate's officially reported percentage of the vote. For example, let's say Hillary Clinton is still available to me after the elimination rounds and I project her for first in South Carolina. Then let's suppose she does indeed finish first with 40% of the vote. In this case, I would be awarded 40 points. As is the case with the annual basketball brackets, players will likely need to successfully pick upsets (especially in Iowa and New Hampshire) in order to come away victorious.
Now, this proposed game probably doesn't make sense to those who aren't political junkies. They would probably wonder why all states aren't treated the same and why small states like Iowa and New Hampshire should carry so much weight. Of course, those of us who are familiar with the nominating process of late know that a candidate who performs poorly in Iowa and/or New Hampshire is, in general, irreversibly hamstrung for the remainder of the nominating process and is likely not to go the distance -- much less win. I believe any fantasy game should parallel this model for the players. Is anyone game?
