AP News, February 25th, 2007
Gallup polling over the past three decades shows Republican front-runners usually win their party's nomination, but Democrats do not. Some elections:
1972-Democrats
February 1971: Edmund Muskie, 26 percent; Edward Kennedy, 25; Hubert Humphrey, 21; John Lindsay and George McGovern, each at 5.
McGovern won the nomination and lost the general election to President Nixon.
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1976-Democrats
February 1975: George Wallace, 22 percent; Humphrey, 16; Henry Jackson, 13; McGovern, 10; Muskie, 9. Jimmy Carter was at 1 percent with 10 candidates in front of him. Carter won the general election, defeating President Ford.
1976-Republicans
March 1975: Gerald Ford 34, Ronald Reagan 22, Barry Goldwater 17.
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1980-Democrats
February 1979: Kennedy, 60 percent; Carter, 28.
Carter lost the general election to Reagan.
1980-Republicans
February 1979: Reagan, 31 percent; Ford, 26; John Connally, 12.
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1984-Democrats
April 1983: Walter Mondale, 29 percent; John Glenn, 23; Gary Hart, 4.
Mondale won the nomination and lost the general election to Reagan.
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1988-Democrats
January 1987: Hart, 30 percent; Lee Iacocca, 14; Jesse Jackson, 13. Michael Dukakis was at 1 percent with seven people in front of him.
Dukakis won the nomination and lost the general election to Vice President George H.W. Bush.
1988-Republicans
January 1987: Bush, 33 percent; Bob Dole 16, Howard Baker and Pat Robertson, each at 6.
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1992-Democrats
February 1991: Mario Cuomo, 18 percent; Jackson, 12; McGovern, 9; Richard Gephardt, 8. Bill Clinton was at 2 percent with 10 people in front of him.
Clinton won the nomination and beat Bush in the general election.
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1996-Republicans
February 1995: Dole, 38 percent; Dan Quayle, 17; Newt Gingrich and Phil Gramm, each at 7.
Dole won the nomination and lost to Clinton in the general election.
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2000-Democrats
January 1999: Al Gore, 47 percent; Gephardt, 13; Bill Bradley, 12; Jackson, 11.
2000-Republicans
January 1999: George W. Bush, 42; Elizabeth Dole, 22; John McCain; 8; Quayle, 6.
Bush beat Gore in the general election.
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2004-Democrats
January 2003: Joe Lieberman, 17 percent; John Kerry, 16; John Edwards and Gephardt, each at 13.
Kerry won the nomination and lost to Bush in the general election.
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2008-Democrats
Mid-February 2007: Hillary Rodham Clinton, 41 percent; Barack Obama, 21; Gore, 14; Edwards, 13. Other candidates' support was less than 5 percent.
2008-Republicans
Mid-February 2007: Rudy Giuliani, 40 percent; McCain, 24; Gingrich, 9; Mitt Romney, 5. Other candidates' support was less than 5 percent.
