Investor's Business Daily, September 12th, 2007
From dust bowls in Australia to drought-hit regions in the U.S., Africa, Asia and the Mideast, growing areas are drying out, helping push crop prices to record highs.
Wheat prices topped $9 a bushel for the first time Wednesday, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said strong global demand and tight supplies will push U.S. stockpiles to a 33-year low.
U.S. crop-year-ending stocks of wheat are forecast to fall to 362 million metric tons in 2007-08 vs. 456 million a year earlier.
Some blame bad farming. Others cite climate changes that reduce rainfall and raise temperatures.
Arid Agriculture
The good news is that big agribusiness players such as Monsanto MON, DuPont DD and Novartis NVS are using genetic engineering to produce drought-resistant crops -- including corn and grain -- that grow on far less water than regular strains.
"If one result of global climate change could be increased drought, then drought-resistant corn and other crops would certainly help mitigate this stress," said Sara Duncan, a Monsanto spokeswoman.
Even if global warming proves more of a fizzle than a threat, scientists warn that the expanding world population intensifies the use of wells and other irrigation sources to grow food. This drains local water tables, rivers and lakes -- exacerbating the drought issue.
"It's an irrigation issue, not a climate issue," said Kendal Hirschi, a molecular geneticist and associate director of research for the Vegetable and Fruit Improvement Center at Texas A&M University. "Most drought is caused by bad irrigation practices and not climate change. And it's a matter of making crops more productive as the amount of arid regions increase."
The U.N. Environment Program estimates that 70% of the world's fresh water used annually goes to agriculture. Nations like Brazil that never faced water shortages are seeing them now, the U.N. says.
Monsanto is using genetic engineering to develop drought-resistant corn, soybeans and cotton.
"Corn is the furthest along and will most likely be the first to market," said Duncan, who expects it to be rolled out in a few years.
She says such designer crops will also help satisfy growing demand for corn for use in making ethanol.
Shlomo Aronson, a professor of political science at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, says drought-resistant crops are an important option in dealing with climate change.
"It applies to any area of the world where you have problems with diminishing water supplies," said Aronson, whose university is spearheading work on drought-resistant crops.
Hebrew University researchers have developed a tomato strain that grows in desert areas.
"The tomatoes are very tasty and are also insect- and disease-resistant," Aronson said.
Major droughts will be more common in the middle latitudes and semiarid low latitudes of the globe in coming decades, according to a 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Affected areas include the U.S., China, Australia, the Middle East and southern Africa.
Biotech Crops Gain Favor
One upshot is that rising demand for drought-resistant crops could lead to wider public acceptance of biotech-based plants.
Some critics blast these so-called "Frankenfoods" as dangerous, since their effects on the human body and the environment are still unknown. But Aronson and others say climate change will make such scientific techniques more acceptable by force of necessity.
In drought-hit Australia, a July poll found that public support for genetically modified crops surged to 73% in 2007 from 46% in 2005. The survey by Biotechnology Australia says support rose because of gene-spliced crops' role in countering drought and pollution.
Aronson says China and India, with their billions to feed, are keen on exploiting drought-resistant crops. China will boost spending on agriculture-based biotechnology by almost 400% by 2010 to shore up its food-growing ability.
Monsanto is finishing its fifth season of field testing drought-resistant corn and other biotech crops.
Duncan says genetic engineering is so exact that crops can be developed for specific growing conditions in arid areas of states like Kansas, Nebraska and California.
Monsanto also is testing drought-resistant strains in undisclosed locations in the Southern Hemisphere, in a range of environments.
Once these crops have been successfully commercialized in the U.S., Duncan says, Monsanto will offer them to other countries.
Ted Schettler warns that drought-resistant crops solve just a small part of food-growing problems.
"With climate change we'll not only see drought, but other wild climate swings like floods," said Schettler, science director at the nonprofit Science and Environmental Health Network.
He says researchers and governments must also focus on efforts to increase soil fertility and crop diversification -- not just biotech.
"We ought to be looking at the entire system of agriculture," said Schettler, "rather than a technological fix that's pointed at a small part of a much larger problem."
