AP News, June 22nd, 2007
The West, Israel and U.S.-allied Arab states want to demonstrate to the Palestinians that moderation pays, and next week's peace summit is the first sign of the strategy.
But after Hamas' bloody takeover of Gaza, a two-headed Palestine complicates prospects for a final peace deal.
West Bankers say they are not willing to write off their brothers in Gaza, and that any deal with Israel must include both territories. Even if Israel and the moderate Fatah movement of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas clinched a deal _ an enormous challenge in its own right _ Hamas can always play the role of spoiler.
While Israel holds the power to influence Hamas by opening and closing Gaza's borders, Hamas has the power to make or break all future peace moves by firing or silencing its guns.
U.S. and Israeli leaders have expressed optimism that the main stumbling block to renewed peace talks has been removed: Hamas' participation in the Palestinian government. After Hamas' takeover in the Gaza Strip, Abbas pulled out of a unity coalition, replacing the Hamas prime minister with a respected economist and leaving Fatah in control of the West Bank.
But an Israeli pullout from the West Bank _ a prerequisite for Palestinian statehood _ is unlikely unless Abbas can ensure the evacuated territory won't be taken over by militants and used as launching pads for attacks on Israel. Abbas' failure to do that in Gaza could make Israelis less inclined to risk a West Bank withdrawal.
Gaza's fall is "a lethal blow to the Palestinian national cause, even to the ability to engage the rest of the world in a unified position that would allow us to sign and deliver" a peace deal, said Palestinian lawmaker Hanan Ashrawi.
The Western response to Hamas' takeover _ feeding the West Bank while isolating Gaza _ appears more likely to seal the Palestinians' division and entrench Hamas than to force the militants to moderate. Hamas' stunning capture of Gaza last week followed 15 months of Western sanctions imposed after the group's 2006 victory in parliamentary elections.
Israel, the U.S., Europe and moderate Arab states have made their strategy clear: demonstrate to the Palestinians that moderation pays by propping up Abbas.
To that end, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will join Abbas in a high-profile summit in Egypt on Monday also attended by Jordan's King Abdullah II and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
Israel and the West will now lift their sanctions on the Palestinian government _ releasing frozen tax funds and resuming aid to Abbas. Israel is also likely to free some of the more than 9,000 Palestinian prisoners and start removing roadblocks that have constricted Palestinian life in the West Bank.
"Our strategy is to demonstrate to the Palestinians in a very tangible way that moderate leadership, through a process of dialogue and negotiations, can achieve much more for the Palestinians than the extremists ever will," said Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev.
It seems entirely possible, however, that Hamas will hold on to power for a long time in Gaza. The group has moved to impose law and order in the chaotic strip, where the security situation has improved since its takeover. Hamas's offer of amnesty for vanquished Fatah fighters is largely holding, and so far there's little sign it will impose strict Islamic rule.
Still, Gaza is clearly facing a future of isolation and economic stagnation. Israel says it will not stop badly needed humanitarian aid from reaching the territory, nor cut off the flow of water, electricity or fuel. Yet Gazans probably won't be able to export, because that would require Israel to trust Hamas to conduct security checks on outgoing goods.
Hamas might seek to reduce tensions by securing the release of a British journalist and an Israeli soldier now held by Gaza militants. But even that, say U.S. and Israeli officials, wouldn't be enough to end the international boycott of Hamas, which they say must still accept international demands that it recognize Israel and renounce violence.
The region is paying a heavy price for the international community's failure to bring Israelis and Palestinians together since the outbreak of the second Palestinian uprising in 2000, said Ashrawi.
"The problem is for the last seven years nothing has been moving," she said. "The vacuum was filled with chaos and violence and lawlessness, and now they think that they can move with only part of the people. They can't."
Steven Gutkin is The Associated Press bureau chief for Israel and the Palestinian territories.
