AP News, September 6th, 2007
The aftermath of this week's British pullout from Basra will demonstrate whether Iraq's nascent security forces have what it takes to keep the peace in a major city where Shiite militias and gangs have held sway.
If the Iraqis can keep rival Shiite militias at bay in the country's second-largest city, that would significantly boost the confidence of the Bush administration in Iraqi capability.
But failure would raise serious questions about Iraq's army and police as President Bush and leading Democrats prepare for a showdown over the future of the U.S. mission during congressional hearings next week.
British soldiers withdrew Sunday from their last base in Basra and moved to the local airport about 12 miles to the north. The move ended the British military's permanent presence in the city and paves the way for further cuts in the 5,500-strong force.
Iraqi soldiers and police now have responsibility for security in the city, with a population of about 2 million. So far calm has prevailed in Basra, which lies 340 miles southeast of Baghdad near the Iranian border.
The Iraqi army has about 4,000 soldiers in Basra province, according to an Iraqi Defense Ministry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
That number, he said, was insufficient for such a large area that is not only one of Iraq's most populous but also includes much of the country's oil wealth.
"Iraqi forces and security agencies will face difficulties because there is a major lack of equipment and numbers," said Hakim al-Mayahi, head of the security committee at the Basra Provincial Council. "In order to control security in Basra, we need at least two army divisions and all we have now is a brigade."
For years, the city's police force has been under the influence of Shiite militias, some with close ties to Iran.
"We are engaged _ or we have been engaged _ effectively in a proxy war with Iran," Lt. Col. Patrick Sanders, commanding officer of 500 troops who vacated their last base in downtown Basra on Sunday, told British Broadcasting Corp.
He acknowledged that if the militias turn their sights on local Iraqi security forces, British troops may need to return to the city to help.
Rival militias "have thrown just about everything they have got at us," Sanders said. "They have been unable to engage us in open fighting. We have been able to patrol around the city at will, on foot and in vehicles, any place or time of our choosing."
To minimize militia influence, the government in Baghdad plans to send troops from outside the city, fearing local troops will be intimidated and their families threatened.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said in a statement Wednesday the British departure from Basra shows the growth of the capabilities of Iraqis and their preparedness to face major challenges. But that is yet to be seen.
Earlier this week, 30 delegates representing various political and religious groups in Basra signed a "charter of honor" to guarantee peace in the city. The pact called for militias to give up their heavy weapons, refrain from attempting to infiltrate security forces and cooperate with security agencies in the hunt for wanted terror suspects.
Significantly, the charter was not signed by representatives of Muqtada al-Sadr, the anti-American Shiite cleric whose Mahdi Army militia is blamed for many of the attacks on British troops.
Basra's other major militias include those of the religious Fadhila Party and the Badr militia, linked to the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, the country's biggest Shiite party.
Supreme Council supporters have dominated police commando units in Basra and the rest of southern Iraq. Fadhila controls the force that guards oil installations. The Mahdi Army controls the local police force and the port authority.
Columnist Elias Harfoush, writing Wednesday in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat, warned that the withdrawal of British troops from Basra occurred "before the Iraqi army is ready to take over complete control of the security situation."
But Iraqi commanders speak about Basra's security with confidence.
Lt. Gen. Mohan al-Fireji, the area's Iraqi commander, told The Associated Press that people should not be pessimistic and should have confidence in Iraqi forces.
"It is true that British forces have recently had a major role as a backup force, but I believe that our forces are capable of performing their duty well," he said.
Britain has yet to announce whether it will order its entire contingent in Iraq to return home. But many Iraqis fear that a British withdrawal is imminent, feeding concern about the capabilities of Iraqi security forces to fill in their shoes.
A major British withdrawal from Iraq could pose a serious danger to Iraq's economy, security as well as the work of multinational forces in the country.
Basra province not only includes oil fields but also oil export terminals. The highway to neighboring Kuwait is a major land supply route to U.S. forces throughout the country.
U.S. officials have hinted that some American forces may have to be transferred to the south if the Iraqis can't control the Basra area.
Maj. Gen. Richard Sherlock, director of Operational Planning at the Pentagon, said last month that U.S. commanders may reposition U.S. forces if necessary "so that they don't give up gains that they've made in different areas, including in Basra and in the south."
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Bassem Mroue has reported frequently from Iraq since 2002.
