Reuters North American News Service, October 25th, 2007
CANBERRA, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Bookmakers, the polls and even
the economy are against Australia's conservative Prime Minister
John Howard, but the nation's political "Lazarus" should not be
written off for November's election, analysts said on Thursday.
On the ropes once before, Howard described his hopes of a
political comeback as akin to "Lazarus with a triple bypass",
referring to the Biblical man who rose from the dead.
But the 11-year leader has proven adept at miracle
resurrections throughout his political career, defying
similarly bad polls and bookmaker odds to win the last election
in 2004.
"I don't accept that he's heading for annihilation," said
Gerard Henderson, a former Howard aide turned head of the
independent Sydney Institute think tank.
"I think he's capable of coming back. He has a substantial
task ahead of him, but it's not impossible," he told local
media.
Still, the signs for conservative soothsayers are not good
just under a month before the Nov. 24 national elections.
A Newspoll in the Australian newspaper this week showed
Kevin Rudd's opposition Labor party leading Howard's governing
coalition by a thumping 58 percent to 42 on preferences.
If confirmed at the ballot, conservative ranks would be
decimated, losing 45 seats, while Labor would finish with 106
seats in the 150-seat lower house, 46 more than at present,
according to leading election analyst Antony Green.
Rudd only needs 16 more seats to win government.
If that were not enough, higher than expected inflation
numbers on Wednesday pointed to a interest rate rise in early
November, unstitching Howard's key comeback pitch to
mortgage-heavy voters of being a better economic handler.
"It's (Almost) Over," said a headline in the Age newspaper.
But political analyst Ian McAllister from the Australian
National University told Reuters that polls pointing to a Labor
landslide were misleading, given voting was compulsory and many
people were undecided until the campaign's final days or hours.
"I would have thought, given the gap between the two
parties, the only way the trend is going to go is to close,"
said McAllister, who has studied Australian elections for 20
years.
The election will determine Australia's climate stance and
whether it keeps combat troops in Iraq. Rudd has promised to
sign the Kyoto pact cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Rudd, 50, is wary of writing off Howard, Australia's second
longest serving leader after conservative Liberal Party founder
Sir Robert Menzies, who ruled for close to 18 years.
"I've got to win 16 seats and what I also know is I'm up
against a very clever and very cunning politician," Rudd said
after the Newspoll was published this week.
Howard's strongest hope may lie oddly in Rudd's home state
of Queensland. The state sprawls from the arid outback to the
tropics, and counts many regional voters sympathetic to Howard.
Currently Labor holds just six of 28 seats in the state and
Rudd hopes to win six more. But a Galaxy poll of voters in key
Queensland marginal seats showed Labor on track to win just
two.
"It's going to be very tough," Rudd said.
Howard is fighting to overturn a mood among voters for
change despite the country enjoying 17 straight years of
economic expansion and unemployment at 33-year lows.
But in a country famous for its "tall poppy syndrome",
where the successful are often criticised rather than
celebrated, Howard has crafted a humble image that resonates
with talk-back radio callers on regional radio.
Combined with his deft capitalisation of voter fears,
ranging from security and immigration to the economy, Howard
has defied poor polls to take victory on three previous
occasions.
Howard characterised himself as "Lazarus" after a bitter
conservative leadership row in 1989. He was dumped as leader at
the time, but 18 years later is the second longest-serving
leader in Australian history.
"Lazarus stirs," said the Sydney Morning Herald.
($1=A$1.11)
