CommenTerry, February 9th, 2007
Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards officially announced his candidacy for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination in late December. Edwards is a trial lawyer who was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1998. But he only served one term, as he didn't seek reelection in 2004, the year he was the Democratic vice presidential nominee. He would appear on the surface to be an excellent candidate. He is young, good looking, intelligent, and eloquent.
However, I believe he will face an uphill climb for the Democratic nomination. His biggest obstacle will be his status as a failed vice presidential nominee. Candidates in both parties, who lose in their bid for vice president without having first won, have great difficulty getting a presidential nomination. For example, Joe Lieberman's primary campaign crashed and burned after the New Hampshire Primary in January 2004. Before that, Sargent Shriver (in 1976) and Edmund Muskie (in 1972) were the last failed vice presidential nominees to seek the Democratic presidential nomination and they were both rejected. On the Republican side, Bob Dole was finally able to capture his party's nomination in 1996 after a failed bid for vice president in 1976. However, even he was turned away in his first two attempts (1980 and 1988).
On the positive side for Edwards, he will have more time to campaign than his potential opponents, with the exception of former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack. The only other major exception could be Al Gore, if he decides to enter the race. All the other major Democratic contenders are currently serving in some kind of elective office. Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner had been another potential Democratic contender currently out of office, but he decided not to run. This decision would seem to benefit Edwards.
Following the 2004 election, Edwards never stopped campaigning and has since developed quite a following, especially in Iowa, which conducts the earliest nominating contest. That appears to be paying off so far, as he is currently leading Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in some early Iowa polls. If he can maintain his popularity in Iowa and parlay it into a win there in its 2008 Democratic Caucuses, he could be well on his way to his party's presidential nomination. That's what he seems to be banking on. But, as we all should know by now, a year can be an eternity in politics.
