Signs.

Although the signs had been clear for months, the crash clearly took many by surprise, perhaps because of the conflicting information to which they had been exposed or perhaps because of their own wishful thinking. The beginning of the end came quietly. In October freight-car loadings and housing starts, key economic indicators of the time, began to decline. As many later noted, the crash did not occur because investors suddenly decided it was time to leave but because they were pushed out. On the stock exchange, business seemed to be relatively normal; shares traded were in the four- to five-million range. But in September brokers' loans increased to $670 million —a good sign because it indicated there was still substantial interest in the market and a bad sign because it increased the outstanding balance of these volatile loans.

Ominous Signs.

On...