British Journal of Psychology, August 1st, 2002
This paper begins with a review of the literature on plausible reasoning with deductive arguments containing a conditional premise. There is concurring evidence that people presented with valid conditional arguments such as Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens generally do not endorse the conclusion, but rather find it uncertain, in case (1) the plausibility of the major conditional premise is debatable, (2) the major conditional premise is formulated in frequentist or probabilistic terms, or (3) an additional premise introduces uncertainty about the major conditional premise. This third situation g...
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