Summary:
Gavrilo Princip's assasination of the Austria-Hungarian archduke was merely the spark that ignited the explosion of war. It would never have brought about the entire war by itself. The preceding events of the war and the motives of parties involved almost guaranteed this war.
"If I hadn't done it, the Germans would have found some other excuse [for war]."
This statement was made by Gavrilo Princip, the Bosnian student who assassinated Archduke Francis Ferdinand at Sarajevo in 1914. According to accounts of the WWI, this assassination set off the series of events that eventually built up to the War. However, if the assassination had not happened, would the war have proceeded anyway"
Looking at the previous series of events, I definitely have to agree to Princip's statement. The assassination was merely the spark that ignited the explosion of war. It would never have brought about the entire war by itself. The preceding events of the war and the motives of parties involved almost guaranteed this war.
Firstly, there was an awkward network of opposing alliances. On one side, there were the Central Powers--Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy. On the other, there were the Allied Powers--France, Russia, and Britain. At first, this created a teetering balance of power that prevented any of the countries from declaring war on each other. This was the initial function of these alliances--mutual destruction. However, the danger in doing this is that once an argument between two countries formed, it would draw all the other nations into the fight. It was either mutuality or full-scale war. This was quite a dangerous balance.
But then, what tipped this balance, what caused this combination of alliances to topple over and result into war? Ultimately, it was the nationalistic fervor in Slavic nations at that time. After breaking off from the Ottoman Empire, these nations had hoped they could absorb all the Slavs on the Baltic peninsula including those in Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary, feeling threatened, was looking for opportunities to take over the scatter of Slavic nations in order to secure its influence around the peninsula. However, Russia, who also had a big Slavic population, supported the Slavic nations and backed them militarily. In 1914, after Austria-Hungary declared war on the Slavs, Russia stormed into war, and eventually drew in all the other nations who were allied with each other.
The nationalistic fervor in each of the participating countries also contributed to this brawl. Each country's men believed their country was superior to the other and encouraged their governments to go to war. They each thought that their countries were definitely going to win the war.
The militarism in Germany was also an important contribution to the initiation of this war. The new Kaiser, William II, was a very proud man, and was eager to show the world how powerful his country is. He challenged nations unnecessarily, such as when he built up Germany's own colonial empire, threatening England and France dominance. He also planned to build up a German navy equal to that of Britain's. This created a lot of intense tensions between Germany and its surrounding countries. The over-confidence of the Kaiser made him over-estimate the power of his country and the quality of the tactics he chose to employ. He also unnecessarily declared war on Russia and France after Austria-Hungary declared war on the Serbs and Russia. Although the Germans were bound by a treaty to do so, the Germans could have avoided the initial war by refusing to back the Austria-Hungarians in their imperialistic show of power. In addition, the unnecessary, unfriendly relationships Germany held with other countries, such as Russia and Britain, were very detrimental during later stages of the war.
With all these great factors in place, Europe was definitely on the brink of war. It is almost obvious that Princip's small-scale assassination of Archduke Ferdinand would not have caused such wide-spread effects. Any other sparks would also have ignited this war.
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