election, which is of twelve members, and of course makes a difference of twenty-four, which is sufficient to make the two Houses, joined together, republican in their vote.  Governor Clinton, General Gates, and some other old revolutionary characters, have been put on the republican ticket.  Burr, Livingston, &c. entertain no doubt on the event of that election.  Still these are the ideas of the republicans only in these three States, and we must make great allowance for their sanguine views.  Upon the whole, I consider it as rather more doubtful than the last election, in which I was not deceived in more than a vote or two.  If Pennsylvania votes, then either Jersey or New York giving a republican vote, decides the election.  If Pennsylvania does not vote, then New York determines the election.  In any event, we may say that if the city election of New York is in favor of the republican ticket, the issue will be republican; if the federal ticket for the city of New York prevails, the probabilities will be in favor of a federal issue, because it would then require a republican vote both from Jersey and Pennsylvania to preponderate against New York, on which we could not count with any confidence.  The election of New York being in April, it becomes an early and interesting object.  It is probable the landing of our Envoys in Lisbon will add a month to our session; because all that the eastern men are anxious about, is to get away before the possibility of a treaty’s coming in upon us.

Present my respectful salutations to Mrs. Madison, and be assured of my constant and affectionate esteem,

Th:  Jefferson.

LETTER CCLIX.—­TO JAMES MADISON, May 12, 1800

TO JAMES MADISON.

Philadelphia, May 12, 1800.

Dear Sir,

Congress will rise to-day or to-morrow.  Mr. Nicholas proposing to call on you, you will get from him the Congressional news.  On the whole, the federalists have not been able to carry a single strong measure in the lower House the whole session.  When they met, it was believed they had a majority of twenty; but many of these were new and moderate men, and soon saw the true character of the party to which they had been well disposed while at a distance.  The tide, too, of public opinion sets so strongly against the federal proceedings, that this melted off their majority, and dismayed the heroes of the party.  The Senate alone remained undismayed to the last.  Firm to their purposes, regardless of public opinion, and more disposed to coerce than to court it, not a man of their majority gave way in the least; and on the election bill they adhered to John Marshall’s amendment, by their whole number; and if there had been a full Senate, there would have been but eleven votes against it, which include H. Marshall, who has voted with the republicans this session.

*****

Accept assurances of constant and affectionate esteem to Mrs. Madison and yourself from, Dear Sir, your sincere friend and servant,