British.  They must then retire from the competition.  Some no doubt will try other channels of commerce, and return cargoes from other countries.  This effect would be salutary.  A very well informed merchant, too, (a Scotchman, entirely in the English trade) told me, bethought it would have another good effect, by checking and withdrawing our extensive commerce and navigation (the fruit of our natural position) within those bounds to which peace must necessarily bring them.  That this being done by degrees, will probably prevent those numerous failures produced generally by a peace coming on suddenly.  Notwithstanding this decree, the sentiments of the merchants become more and more cooled and settled down against arming.  Yet it is believed the Representatives do not cool; and though we think the question against arming will be carried, yet probably by a majority of only four or five.  Their plan is to have convoys furnished for our vessels going to Europe, and smaller vessels for the coasting defence.  On this condition, they will agree to fortify southern harbors and build some galleys.  It has been concluded among them, that if war takes place, Wolcott is to be retained in office, that the President must give up M’Henry, and as to Pickering they are divided, the eastern men being determined to retain him, their middle and southern brethren wishing to get rid of him.  They have talked of General Pinckney as successor to M’Henry.  This information is certain.  However, I hope we shall avoid war, and save them the trouble of a change of ministry.  The President has nominated John Quincy Adams Commissioner Plenipotentiary to renew the treaty with Sweden.  Tazewell made a great stand against it, on the general ground that we should let our treaties drop, and remain without any.  He could only get eight votes against twenty.  A trial will be made today in another form, which he thinks will give ten or eleven against sixteen or seventeen, declaring the renewal inexpedient.  In this case, notwithstanding the nomination has been confirmed, it is supposed the President would perhaps not act under it, on the probability that more than the third would be against the ratification.  I believe, however, that he would act, and that a third could not be got to oppose the ratification.  It is acknowledged we have nothing to do but to decide the question about arming.  Yet not a word is said about adjourning; and some even talk of continuing the session permanently; others talk of July and August.  An effort, however, will soon be made for an early adjournment.  My friendly salutations to Mrs. Madison; to yourself an affectionate adieu.

Th:  Jefferson.

LETTER CCXXVII.—­TO JAMES MADISON, March 21, 1798

TO JAMES MADISON.

Philadelphia, March 21, 1798.

Dear Sir,