registration in the United States of vessels actually
owned by belligerents or regard as anything more than
masquerading their appearance under the American flag.
England has never recognized any one’s “right”
to do anything at sea in time of war which did not
accrue directly to her own benefit. It is scarcely
necessary to say that she will not allow trade with
Germany or Austria while she can prevent it.
The only refuge will be the sale of the ship by the
foreign owner to Americans who will trade with England,
her allies, and strictly neutral nations. As
always in time of war, privateering and smuggling
will be profitable, and trade with Germany, unless
she is immediately victorious at sea, will offer to
the adventurous plenty of risk and the certainty of
huge profits. During the Napoleonic wars the flats
and bars of the German coast along the North Sea offered
light vessels a great opportunity and the pursuing
warships great obstacles. A modern motor-driven
light craft will now have an enormous advantage over
destroyers or cruisers. Here, as a century ago,
many an American will find an opportunity to make
a fortune.
The preoccupation of Europe with the war and the opening
of the Panama Canal will afford the United States
an unrivaled opportunity to develop trade with Canada,
South America, Australia, New Zealand, India, China,
and the Far East in general. We have never bulked
large in the eyes of these countries and there has
been much speculation as to the reasons why the German
succeeded so well in South America and why the Englishman
did so much business in China. Whether from sentiment
or from a national habit that prefers English goods,
the English colonies have bought more largely of the
mother country than they have of us. But now that
the war has closed the German factories, called German
commercial agents home, and sent German ships racing
to neutral harbors; now that the Panama Canal brings
us some thousands of miles nearer to Australia and
New Zealand than they are to London via Suez; now
that England will be busy manufacturing for Europe
and will have less to sell her colonies, these particular
parts of the world will probably be compelled to look
for their manufactured goods to the United States.
Indeed, if one were not afraid of being accused of
gross exaggeration, he might take heart and proclaim
his conviction that a long and really inclusive European
war would give the United States a practical monopoly
of the South American and Pacific trade, provided
always that the United States acquire by purchase
a merchant marine and that the Panama Canal becomes
feasible in January for large ships.