It is constantly found that a penalty of smaller amount, a less severe punishment, is more likely to prevent a wrong than a heavier one, provided that it is prompt and certain.  Had Germany known a few months sooner that Britain would assuredly go to war and put into such war her whole resources if Belgium were invaded, it is not improbable that that outrage would never have been committed; but had Germany also known that the moment her troops crossed the Belgian frontier every German ship in the United States would be interned, every American citizen punished as a criminal by the United States Government if he traded with Germany, that “intercourse” with the aggressor would be at once forbidden, and that these restraints would be continued until complete restitution had been made, is it not morally certain that Belgium would not have been invaded?  War might have been prevented.  In fear of such an injury to German trade and commerce, the bankers of Berlin and Frankfort would have denounced war; the merchants of Hamburg and Bremen would have been the strongest advocates of peace.  A like test might be applied to other cases of aggression.  The effects of breaking off diplomatic—­and, still more, commercial—­relationships, although no shot is fired and no regiment mobilised, and of mere neutrality differ toto coelo.  The very people who are least influenced by moral restraints, who scorn justice, will be most influenced by the financial losses and the destruction of their trade.

It was, no doubt, right “to commend a study of the question” to His Majesty’s Government, but it is also well to commend to the Government the desirability of consultation with those outside the Government departments who have given study to it already.  Like other problems, it should be considered in advance during the War.  As Lord Shaw forcibly pointed out, “The project does not mean the slackening of our efforts or a weakening of our forces or timidity in our policy in the present War.  If it did I would not be associated with it for one hour.”

To quote Lord Grey’s words, Germany has to be convinced that force does not pay, that the aims and policy of her military rulers inflict intolerable and also unnecessary suffering upon her.  The regeneration of Germany, a real new birth, is necessary if the peace of the world is to be secured; and surely by now we might have learned that such regeneration will never come unless Germany is beaten in this War.  As Lord Grey says, “Recent military success and the ascendancy of Prussian militarism have reduced the advocates of anything but force to silence” in Germany.  As these words are written comes the report of the sinking of the hospital ship Llandovery Castle, followed by cold-blooded and deliberate murder.  The mass of German crime grows daily.