of the war, the highly developed character and the
inter-relatedness of foreign commerce, the possibility
of new industrial forces coming into play, and the
influence of the war on the political and social ideas
of the European peoples. It may be that in this
country the war will let loose economic forces destined
to modify industrial organisation very profoundly;
and that social forces, especially on the Continent,
will be liberated to work towards fuller political
freedom. These things lie in the veiled future,
and prophecy is dangerous. We may, however, turn
to consider some of the probable effects the war will
leave behind it.
1. General Effects.—When the war
comes to an end, an immediate revival of commercial
relations between the combatant States and a general
revival of foreign trade cannot be reasonably expected.
After the Napoleonic Wars, English manufacturers,
assuming the eagerness of continental peoples to buy
their goods, were met with the obvious fact that impoverished
nations are not good customers. When peaceful
relations are resumed in Europe, we shall recognise
very vividly the extent to which industry and commerce
on the Continent have been closed down. Even
assuming that British production continues, Germany,
Belgium and Austria will have little to send us in
exchange. The closing of the overseas markets
of Germany, and the consequent shrinkage in production,
the disruption of normal industrial life by the withdrawal
of millions of men to join the colours, and the abnormal
character of existing trade, due to the needs of the
armies in the field, are not conditions favourable
to the easy resumption of normal commercial relations.
The dislocation of the mechanism of industry and commerce
in Europe, on a much larger scale than ever before—a
mechanism which has with growing international relations
and interdependence become more complicated and more
sensitive in recent years—cannot be immediately
remedied by a stroke of the pen or the fiat of an emperor.
The credit system upon which modern industry and commerce
are built depends upon mutual confidence. This
confidence will not be restored among the combatant
nations immediately on the cessation of war; it will
require time to grow. Further, Europe during
the war has been spending its substance and must emerge
much poorer. This applies not only to combatant
States, but to neutral countries, some of which have
floated loans to meet the abnormal expenditure thrown
upon them by prolonged mobilisation. The capital
and credit of a large number of people will have suffered
great loss or have vanished into thin air. Houses,
shops, and buildings of all kinds, produce manufactured
and unmanufactured, bridges, ships, railway stations
and stock of enormous value will have been destroyed.
The community will have been impoverished, not only
by the expenditure of great armies and the destruction
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