The little lady threw a triumphant glance across at her companion.

“There, Captain Fielder,” she declared, “you have heard what a typical, well-informed, cultivated German gentleman has to say.  I rely much more upon Mr. Selingman than upon any of the German reviews or official statements of policy.”

Captain Fielder was bluntly unconvinced.

“Mr. Selingman, without doubt,” he agreed, “may represent popular and cultivated German opinion.  The only thing is whether the policy of the country is dictated by that class.  Do you happen to have seen the afternoon papers?”

“Not yet,” Mr. Selingman admitted.  “Is there any news?”

“There is the full text,” Captain Fielder continued, “of Austria’s demands upon Servia.  I may be wrong, but I say confidently that those demands, which are impossible of acceptance, which would reduce Servia, in fact, to the condition of a mere vassal state, are intended to provoke a state of war.”

Mr. Selingman shook his head.

“I have seen the proposals,” he remarked.  “They were in the second edition of the morning papers.  They are onerous, without a doubt, but remember that as you go further east, all diplomacy becomes a matter of barter.  They ask for so much first because they are prepared to take a great deal less.”

“It is my opinion,” Captain Fielder pronounced, “that these demands are couched with the sole idea of inciting Russia’s intervention.  There is already a report that Servia has appealed to St. Petersburg.  It is quite certain that Russia, as the protector of the Slav nations, can never allow Servia to be humbled to this extent.”

“Even then,” Mr. Selingman protested good-humouredly, “Austria is not Germany.”

“There are very few people,” Captain Fielder continued, “who do not realise that Austria is acting exactly as she is bidden by Germany.  To-morrow you will find that Russia has intervened.  If Vienna disregards her, there will be mobilisation along the frontiers.  It is my private and very firm impression that Germany is mobilising to-day, and secretly.”

Mr. Selingman laughed good-humouredly.

“Well, well,” he said, “let us hope it is not quite so bad as that.”

“You are frightening me, Captain Fielder,” Mrs. Barlow declared.  “I am going to take you off to play bridge.”

They left the room.  Selingman looked after them a little curiously.

“Your military friend,” he remarked, “is rather a pessimist.”

“Well, we haven’t many of them,” Norgate replied.  “Nine people out of ten believe that a war is about as likely to come as an earthquake.”

Selingman glanced towards the closed door.

“Supposing,” he said, dropping his voice a little, “supposing I were to tell you, young man, that I entirely agreed with your friend?  Supposing I were to tell you that, possibly by accident, he has stumbled upon the exact truth?  What would you say then?”