Hungary yesterday shows only too clearly that this danger is no fantasy.  And what are the reasons alleged for this decision?  They are mainly the belief that large numbers of Magyars are to be handed over to the control of others.  If we are wise, we shall offer to Germany a peace, which, while just, will be preferable for all sensible men to the alternative of Bolshevism.  I would therefore put it in the forefront of the peace that once she accepts our terms, especially reparation, we will open to her the raw materials and markets of the world on equal terms with ourselves, and will do everything possible to enable the German people to get upon their legs again.  We cannot both cripple her and expect her to pay.

Finally, we must offer terms which a responsible government in Germany can expect to be able to carry out.  If we present terms to Germany which are unjust, or excessively onerous, no responsible government will sign them; certainly the present weak administration will not.  If it did, I am told that it would be swept away within twenty-four hours.  Yet if we can find nobody in Germany who will put his hand to a peace treaty, what will be the position?  A large army of occupation for an indefinite period is out of the question.  Germany would not mind it.  A very large number of people in that country would welcome it, as it would be the only hope of preserving the existing order of things.  The objection would not come from Germany, but from our own countries.  Neither the British Empire nor America would agree to occupy Germany.  France by itself could not bear the burden of occupation.  We should therefore be driven back on the policy of blockading the country.  That would inevitably mean Spartacism from the Urals to the Rhine, with its inevitable consequence of a huge red army attempting to cross the Rhine.  As a matter of fact, I am doubtful whether public opinion would allow us deliberately to starve Germany.  If the only difference between Germany and ourselves were between onerous terms and moderate terms, I very much doubt if public opinion would tolerate the deliberate condemnation of millions of women and children to death by starvation.  If so, the Allies would have incurred the moral defeat of having attempted to impose terms on Germany which Germany had successfully resisted.

From every point of view, therefore, it seems to me that we ought to endeavour to draw up a peace settlement as if we were impartial arbiters, forgetful of the passions of the war.  This settlement ought to have three ends in view.

First of all it must do justice to the Allies, by taking into account Germany’s responsibility for the origin of the War, and for the way in which it was fought.

Secondly, it must be a settlement which a responsible German government can sign in the belief that it can fulfil the obligations it incurs.

Thirdly, it must be a settlement which will contain in itself no provocations for future wars, and which will constitute an alternative to Bolshevism, because it will commend itself to all reasonable opinion as a fair settlement of the European problem.