SOURCE: "The Logic of Uncertainty According to J. M. Keynes," in The Kyoto University Economic Review, Vol. XXXIX, No. 1, April, 1969, pp. 22-44.

In the following excerpt, Hishiyama maintains that A Treatise on Probability had a direct bearing on the General Theory, particularly with regard to the two essential components of Keynes's principle of aggregate demand, investment and consumption, both of which, according to Keynes, contain an element of uncertainty that is not mathematically calculable.

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I think that one chapter has been left untouched in the studies about J. M. Keynes which have been made so far. It is none other than the relationships between A Treatise on Probability and The General Theory. Because A Trestuse on Probability was Keynes' first painstaking work, I believe in a certain sense that the study of these relationships will serve to clarify the changes of his thought from his early days...